Analysis of the ecological vulnerability of the Krasnodar Krai population using a multifactor demographic model
Research Article
How to Cite
Lipatov V.A., Solomakhin A.A., Berzin D.V., Tochilkina T.E. Analysis of the ecological vulnerability of the Krasnodar Krai population using a multifactor demographic model. Population. 2024. Vol. 27. No. 2. P. 96-110. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-2-96-110 (in Russ.).
Abstract
In a global context, the complex concept of disaster risk, vulnerability and risk has changed over the past twenty years. However, its methods and models are being developed at different levels in foreign countries and Russia. In this article, the authors examine current issues related to assessing the environmental vulnerability of Russians during river floods in the South. An example of ten model subjects from Krasnodar Krai located in the Kuban River basin is used to test the Multifactor Demographic Environmental Vulnerability Model. Vulnerability assessment algorithm consists of three interconnected blocks: variable selection and calculation; developing a ranking matrix for obtained quantitative indicators, calculated individually for each model subject (municipality) using a unified methodology and creating a cartographic spatial model ranking the environmental vulnerability of the model subjects. The QGIS geographic information system was used to create a cartographic model of the spatial distribution of vulnerable population groups. There are two factors in the model: demographics (including persons aged 0 to 19 years and those aged 65 and older, and persons with disabilities, i.e., the proportion of disabled individuals, type of residential premises occupied and household composition, and lack of familiarity with the location of residence) and socioeconomics (low-income groups, dependents, telecommunications, and level of education). Areas (Armavir and Krasnodar municipalities, Krymsk and Ust-Labinsk rayons) and populations (elderly, individuals with disabilities, and one-person households in an individual house, and households in an individual house) that are most vulnerable were identified. The results obtained may contribute to improving the efficiency of management decisions at the county level taken by emergency management authorities, demographic policy, spatial planning and urban development, health, and social protection, to reduce the risk of disasters from floods.
Keywords:
quality of life, environmental risk, riverine floods, Krasnodar Krai, geoinformation mapping, economic and demographic model, health and social care issues
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2. Vorobyov Yu. L, Akimov V. A, Sokolov Yu. I. Katastraficheskie navodneniya nachala XXI veka. Uroki i vyvody [Catastrophic Floods of the Early 21st Century. Conclusions and Lessons]. Moscow. DEKS-PRESS. 2003. 352 p. (in Russ.)
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4. Gordin I. V., Ryumina E. V. Zastrojka poberezhij: socio-ekologo-ekonomicheskaya specifika [Development of coasts: socio-ecologic-economic specifics]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2020. Vol. 23. No. 4. P. 50–60. DOI: 10.19181/population.2020.23.4.5 (in Russ.)
5. Potravnaya E. V. Gendernye osobennosti vospriyatiya ekologicheskih problem korennymi narodami Severa Rossii [Gender-specific perceptions of environmental problems by the indigenous peoples of the North of Russia]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2020. Vol. 23. No. 2. P. 73–84. DOI: 10.19181/population.2020.23.2.7 (in Russ.)
6. Budilova E. V., Lagutin M. B., Migranova L. A. Vliyanie demograficheskih i social’no-ekonomicheskih faktorov na populyacionnoe zdorov’e naseleniya [Impact of the demographic and socio-economic factors on the population health]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2019. Vol. 22. No. 3. P. 80–92. DOI: 10.19181/1561-7785-2019-00028 (in Russ.)
7. Borodina T. L. Mesto prigranichnyh regionov v tipologii regional’noj dinamiki naseleniya Rossii v postsovetskij period [The place of border regions in the typology of regional population dynamics in Russia in the post-Soviet period]. Sbornik materialov po itogam XXXII ezhegodnoj sessii ekonomiko-geograficheskoj sekcii MARS [Proceedings of XXXII Annual Session of the Economic-Geographical Section of the International Academy of Regional Development and Cooperation (MARS). Pskov, June 2015]. Ed. V. Streletsky. Moscow. Eslan. 2016. P. 52–65. (in Russ.)
8. Kostianaia E. A., Kostianoy A. G. Regional climate change impact on coastal tourism: A case study for the Black Sea Coast of Russia. [Hydrology]. 2021. Vol. 8. No. 3. Available at: https://www.mdpi. com/journal/hydrology (Accessed: 1 October 2023). DOI: 10.3390/hydrology8030133
9. Mavlyanova N. G, Lipatov V. A., Yuldashev O. R. Transboundary problems of overcoming natural disasters for international regional organizations in the Eurasian Region. [Studies on Russian Economic Development]. 2018. Vol. 29. No. 3. P. 322–328. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700718030097 (in Russ.)
10. Lipatov V., Mavlyanova N., Tiefenbacher J. Flood hazards, social vulnerability and societal risks in Russia. Environment, Development and Sustainability. 2023. Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10668–023–03410-x (Accessed: 1 October 2023). DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03410-x
11. Prohaska T. R., Peters K. E. Impact of natural disasters on health outcomes and cancer among older adults. The Gerontologist. 2019. Vol. 59. No. S1. June 2019. P. 50–S56. DOI: 10.1093/geront/gnz018
12. Stough L. M., Kelman I. People with disabilities and disasters. Handbook of Disaster Research. Springer. 2017. P. 225–242. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-63254-4_12
13. Revich B. A. Ekologicheskie prioritety i zdorov’e: social’no uyazvimye territorii i gruppy naseleniya [Environmental priorities and public health: socially vulnerable territories and population groups]. Ekologiya cheloveka [Human Ecology]. 2010. Vol. 7. P. 3–9. (in Russ.)
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15. Kostyuchenko Y. V., Movchan D., Kopachevsky I., Bilous. Y. Robust algorithm of multi-source data analysis for evaluation of social vulnerability in risk assessment tasks. SAI Intelligent Systems Conference (IntelliSys). London. 2015. P. 944–949. DOI: 10.1109/IntelliSys.2015.7361256
16. Nakamura R., Kawasaki A. Quantitative evaluation of flood control measures and educational support to reduce disaster vulnerability of the poor based on household-level savings estimates. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change. 2022. Vol. 6. P. 355–371. DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00112-y
17. Ragozin A. L. Socialnaya i ekologicheskaya uyazvimost [Social and environmental vulnerability]. Prirodnye opasnosti Rossii. Tom 6. Ocenka i upravlenie prirodnymi riskami [Russia’s Natural Hazards. Volume 6. Natural Risk Assessment and Management]. Ed. A. L. Ragozin. Moscow. KRUK. 2003. P. 118–120. (in Russ.)
18. Porfiriev B. N. Ekonomika prirodnyh katastrof [Тhe economy of natural disasters]. Mir novoj ekonomiki [The World of New Economy]. 2015. Vol. 4. P. 21–40. (in Russ.)
19. Zemtsov S., Krylenko I., Yumina N. Socialno-ekonomicheskaya ocenka riska navodnenij v pribrezhnyh zonah Azovo-Chernomorskogo poberezhya Krasnodarskogo kraya [Socio-economic assessment of flood risk in coastal zones of the Azov-Black Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai]. Sbornik materialov po itogam seminara «Prirodnye i socialnye riski v beregovoj zone Chernogo i Azovskogo morej [Proceedings of the seminar «Natural and Social Risks in the Coastal Zone of the Black and Azov Seas». Moscow, 16–19 June 2012]. Eds. K. Koltermann, S. Dobrolyubova, N. Alekseevsky. Moscow. [Triumph]. 2012. P. 86–96. (in Russ.)
20. Padalko Yu. Socialno-ekonomicheskaya uyazvimost naseleniya i hozyajstva regionov rossijskoj chasti bassejna r. Ural ot navodnenij [The socio-economic vulnerability of the Russian part of the Ural river basin to floods]. Uspehi sovremennogo estestvoznaniya [Advances in Current Natural Sciences]. 2016. No. 12–2. P. 439–443. (in Russ.)
21. Climate Change Impact on Public Health in the Russian Arctic. Ed. B. Revich. Moscow. United Nations Office in the Russian Federation. 2008. 25 p.
22. Burton C., Rufat S., Tate E. Social vulnerability: Conceptual foundations and geospatial modeling. Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards. Eds. S. Fuchs, T. Thaler. Cambridge, UK. Cambridge University Press. 2018. P. 53–81.
23. Katic K. Developing Croatia-specific methodology for assessing social vulnerability. In: K. Katic. Understanding Risk Forum 2016. Venice, 18 May 2016. Available at: https://understandrisk.org/wp-content/uploads/Comparable-social-vulnerability-profiling-Case-study-Croatia.pdf (Accessed: 17 April 2024).
24. Lehnert E. A., Wilt G., Flanagan B., Hallisey E. Spatial exploration of the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index and heat-related health outcomes in Georgia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2020. Vol. 46. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101517
Article
Received: 07.10.2023
Accepted: 21.06.2024
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Lipatov, V. A., Solomakhin, A. A., Berzin, D. V., & Tochilkina, T. E. (2024). Analysis of the ecological vulnerability of the Krasnodar Krai population using a multifactor demographic model. Population, 27(2), 96-110. https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-2-96-110
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
