Russian population in Estonia: main geodemographic trends (2000–2021)
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The research was funded by the RSF grant No. 24–28–00974. URL: https://rscf.ru/project/24–28–00974/.
How to Cite
Uznarodov D.I. Russian population in Estonia: main geodemographic trends (2000–2021). Population. 2024. Vol. 27. No. 3. P. 31-47. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-3-31-47 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article analyzes the quantitative, spatial, and settlement dynamics of the Russian population of Estonia in the period 2000–2021, examines the shifts in its age structure and gender ratio. The study confirmed preservation in 2000–2010 of two epicenters of the Russian settlement system, including the North-East of Estonia (Ida-Virumaa County) and the metropolitan subregion (Tallinn and Harjumaa County). Russian population’s compact settlement, limited level of natural population decline and near-zero migration balance contributed to a significant reduction in its demographic losses, the rate of which was minimal within all of Russia’s new abroad (10.3% in 2000–2021). The degree of deformation of the age and sex structure of Russians in Estonia was insignificant in comparison with other post-Soviet countries. The combination of these favorable factors works to preserve the scenario of a slow decrease of the Russian community in the country in the coming decades. But the overall demographic stability did not exclude serious problems associated with the active outflow of some Russians (primarily young people and people of working age) to the metropolitan subregion. The consequence of this process was the accelerated decline and rapid aging of the majority of regional groups of Russian population. Currently, in 10 of the 15 counties of Estonia, the average age of Russians exceeds 50 years, which makes a noticeable increase in their natural losses inevitable in the future 10–20 years. Two smallest and oldest regional groups of Russians (Saaremaa and Hiiumaa counties) may almost completely cease to exist by the middle of the century; Russian population of another 6–7 counties of country may decrease by 1.8–2.5 times. Russians in Estonia will be significantly reduced under this geodemographic scenario, and they will be overconcentrated in the metropolitan subregion, which in 2045–2050 may account for about 65–70% of the Russian population of the country.
Keywords:
Russian population of Estonia, demographic and migration dynamics, settlement system, age and sex structure
References
1. Rybakovsky L. L. Russkije i novoje zarubezh’je: migratsionnyj obmen i jego vliyanije na demograficheskuyu dinamiku [Russians and the New Abroad: Migration Exchange and Its Impact on Demographic Dynamics]. Moscow. Institut sotsial’no-politicheskih issledovanij Federal’nogo nauchno-issledovatel’skogo sotsiologicheskogo centra Rossijskoj akademii nauk [Institute of Socio-Political Research of the FCTAS RAS]. 1996. 55 p. (in Russ.)
2. Tishkov V. A. Russkije kak men’shinstva (primer Estonii) [Russians as minorities (the example of Estonia)]. Obshchestvennyje nauki i sovremennost’ [Social Sciences and Contemporary World]. 1993. No. 6. P. 87–103. (in Russ.)
3. Nikiforov I. V., Poleshchuk V. V. Demografiya russkogo naseleniya Estonii v 20 veke [Demography of the Russian population of Estonia in the 20th century]. Etnicheskaya politika v stranakh Baltii [Ethnic Politics in the Baltic States]. Moscow. Nauka [Science]. 2013. P. 155–176. (in Russ.)
4. Hallik K. S. Russkie v Estonii [Russians in Estonia]. Russkije: etnosotsiologicheskije issledovaniya [Russians: Ethnosociological Studies]. Moscow. Nauka [Science]. 2011. P. 90–119. (in Russ.)
5. Kozlov V. A. Demograficheskoje povedenije russkoj diaspory v stranakh Pribaltiki i Tsentral’noj Azii [Demographic behavior of the Russian diaspora in the Baltic States and Central Asia]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN [Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2018. No. 3. P. 50–60. (in Russ.)
6. Manakov A. G., Chuchenkova O. A. Dinamika etnicheskogo sostava naseleniya Estonii i Latvii s 1881 g. po 2016 g. [Dynamics of the Ethnic Composition of the Population of Estonia and Latvia from 1881 to 2016]. Moscow. Russkaya kniga [Russian Book]. 2017. 55 p. (in Russ.)
7. Manakov A. G., Suvorkov P. E., Ermolin I. V. Otsenka vosproizvodstvennogo potentsiala etnicheskikh grupp v stranakh Baltii [Assessment of the reproductive potential of ethnic groups in the Baltic States]. Sovremennaya Yevropa [Contemporary Europe]. 2021. No. 7. P. 27–38. DOI: http://dx.doi. org/10.15211/soveurope720212738 (in Russ.)
8. Sushchy S. Ya. Russkije v Pribaltike — geodemograficheskije trendy postsovetskogo perioda i perspektivy pervoj poloviny 21 veka [Russians in the Baltics — geodemographic trends of the post-Soviet period and prospects for the first half of the 21st century]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2018. Vol. 21. No. 3. P. 21–36. DOI: 10.26653/1561-7785-2018-21-3-02 (in Russ.)
9. Sushchy S. Ya. Russkoje naselenije blizhnego zarubezh’ya: geodemograficheskaya dinamika postsovetskogo perioda [The Russian population of the near abroad: geodemographic dynamics of the post-Soviet period]. Demograficheskoje obozrenije [Demographic Review]. 2020. Vol. 7. No. 2. P. 6–30. DOI: 10.17323/demreview.v7i2.11137 (in Russ.)
10. Zhitin D. V., Ivanova A. A. Demograficheskoje razvitije stran Baltii [Demographic Development of the Baltic States]. Moscow. Russkaya kniga [Russian Book]. 2017. 112 p. (in Russ.)
11. Kabuzan V. M. Russkije v mire [Russians in the World]. Saint Petersburg. Blits. 1996. 350 p. (in Russ.)
12. Khrushchev S. A. Etnicheskije aspekty demograficheskikh processov v stranakh Baltijskogo regiona [Ethnic aspects of demographic processes in the Baltic region states]. Baltijskij region [Baltic Region]. 2010. No. 4. P. 91–102. (in Russ.)
2. Tishkov V. A. Russkije kak men’shinstva (primer Estonii) [Russians as minorities (the example of Estonia)]. Obshchestvennyje nauki i sovremennost’ [Social Sciences and Contemporary World]. 1993. No. 6. P. 87–103. (in Russ.)
3. Nikiforov I. V., Poleshchuk V. V. Demografiya russkogo naseleniya Estonii v 20 veke [Demography of the Russian population of Estonia in the 20th century]. Etnicheskaya politika v stranakh Baltii [Ethnic Politics in the Baltic States]. Moscow. Nauka [Science]. 2013. P. 155–176. (in Russ.)
4. Hallik K. S. Russkie v Estonii [Russians in Estonia]. Russkije: etnosotsiologicheskije issledovaniya [Russians: Ethnosociological Studies]. Moscow. Nauka [Science]. 2011. P. 90–119. (in Russ.)
5. Kozlov V. A. Demograficheskoje povedenije russkoj diaspory v stranakh Pribaltiki i Tsentral’noj Azii [Demographic behavior of the Russian diaspora in the Baltic States and Central Asia]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN [Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2018. No. 3. P. 50–60. (in Russ.)
6. Manakov A. G., Chuchenkova O. A. Dinamika etnicheskogo sostava naseleniya Estonii i Latvii s 1881 g. po 2016 g. [Dynamics of the Ethnic Composition of the Population of Estonia and Latvia from 1881 to 2016]. Moscow. Russkaya kniga [Russian Book]. 2017. 55 p. (in Russ.)
7. Manakov A. G., Suvorkov P. E., Ermolin I. V. Otsenka vosproizvodstvennogo potentsiala etnicheskikh grupp v stranakh Baltii [Assessment of the reproductive potential of ethnic groups in the Baltic States]. Sovremennaya Yevropa [Contemporary Europe]. 2021. No. 7. P. 27–38. DOI: http://dx.doi. org/10.15211/soveurope720212738 (in Russ.)
8. Sushchy S. Ya. Russkije v Pribaltike — geodemograficheskije trendy postsovetskogo perioda i perspektivy pervoj poloviny 21 veka [Russians in the Baltics — geodemographic trends of the post-Soviet period and prospects for the first half of the 21st century]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2018. Vol. 21. No. 3. P. 21–36. DOI: 10.26653/1561-7785-2018-21-3-02 (in Russ.)
9. Sushchy S. Ya. Russkoje naselenije blizhnego zarubezh’ya: geodemograficheskaya dinamika postsovetskogo perioda [The Russian population of the near abroad: geodemographic dynamics of the post-Soviet period]. Demograficheskoje obozrenije [Demographic Review]. 2020. Vol. 7. No. 2. P. 6–30. DOI: 10.17323/demreview.v7i2.11137 (in Russ.)
10. Zhitin D. V., Ivanova A. A. Demograficheskoje razvitije stran Baltii [Demographic Development of the Baltic States]. Moscow. Russkaya kniga [Russian Book]. 2017. 112 p. (in Russ.)
11. Kabuzan V. M. Russkije v mire [Russians in the World]. Saint Petersburg. Blits. 1996. 350 p. (in Russ.)
12. Khrushchev S. A. Etnicheskije aspekty demograficheskikh processov v stranakh Baltijskogo regiona [Ethnic aspects of demographic processes in the Baltic region states]. Baltijskij region [Baltic Region]. 2010. No. 4. P. 91–102. (in Russ.)
Article
Received: 05.03.2024
Accepted: 18.09.2024
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Uznarodov, D. I. (2024). Russian population in Estonia: main geodemographic trends (2000–2021). Population, 27(3), 31-47. https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-3-31-47
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
