Reproduction of the population of the regions of Russia in 1992–2024: results, components, factors
Research Article
How to Cite
Rybakovsky O.L. Reproduction of the population of the regions of Russia in 1992–2024: results, components, factors. Population. 2024. Vol. 27. No. 4. P. 4-17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-4-4-17 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The subject of the study is reproduction of the permanent population of Russian regions as a whole for 1992–2024 and its main components. The object is permanent population of Russian regions as a whole. The purpose of the study is to identify among all regions of Russia as a whole for 33 years the groups that are typical in terms of the relative parameters of population reproduction in them and in terms of their components — factors of this process. Research methods — demographic statistical analysis, construction of relative indicators for a correct interregional comparison. The source of statistics for calculations is Rosstat data. Research results: Russian regions ranked according to the relative level of population reproduction — the vitality index and its components — factors. 7 groups of territories were identified, of which only one did not experience depopulation for 33 years. The remaining groups include regions from the most demographically disadvantaged to those teetering on the brink of depopulation and natural increase. Components — factors explain the current situation in each of the groups. Regions with a high level of socio-economic development compensate for the natural losses with interregional and foreign migration, replenishing their gender and age structure primarily with young population, and the level of depopulation in them is moderate. Other territories of the Russian Federation, losing their young population through migration, only exacerbate the depopulation. The «mild» level of depopulation in Asian Russia is explained, among other things, by the low proportion of the population aged 65 and older. One of the factors for this is a significant outflow of the population of working age and retirement age, especially in the 1990s.
Keywords:
demography of Russian regions, natural decrease/increase, depopulation, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth
References
1. Rybakovsky O. L., Fadeeva T. A. Depopulatsija v regionakh Rosiji k nachalu 2020 goda [Depopulation in the regions of Russia by the beginning of 2020]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2020. Vol. 23. No. 3. Р. 119–129. (in Russ.)
2. Ravenstein E. G. The laws of migratoin. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Vol. 52. Part 2. June 1889. P. 214–301.
3. Lee E. S. A theory of migration. Demography. 1966. No. 3. P. 47–57. DOI: 10.2307/2060063.
4. Rybakovsky L. L., Rybakovsky O. L. Depopulyatsiya v Rossii: itogi za 1992–2022 gg., komponenty i kompensatsiya migratsiyey na regional’nom urovne [Depopulation in Russia: Results for 1992– 2022, components and compensation by migration at the regional level]. Sotsial’no-trudovyye issledovaniya [Social and Labor Research]. 2023. No. 51(2). P. 16–26. (in Russ.)
5. Rybakovsky O. L., Tayunova O. A. Demograficheskaya dinamika regionov Rossii i yeyo komponenty v 1959–2017 gg. [Population dynamics of Russian regions and its components in 1959–2017]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2019. Vol. 22. No.1. P. 4–20. (in Russ.)
6. Rybakovsky O. L. Vozrastnaya struktura naseleniya regionov Rossii v nachale 21 veka: komponenty formirovaniya [The age structure of the population of the regions of Russia at the beginning of the 21st century: components of the formation]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2023. Vol. 26. No.1. P. 4–15. DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.1.1 (in Russ.)
7. Pirozhkov S. I., Safarova G. L. Vozrastnaya struktura kak faktor vosproizvodstva naseleniya. Ekonomiko-matematicheskiye issledovaniya [Age structure as a factor of population reproduction]. Matematicheskiye Issledovaniya: Ekonomiko-Matematicheskiye modeli i informatsionnyye tekhnologii. Sbornik trudov SPb EMI RAN № 3 [Economic and Mathematical Studies: Mathematical Models and Information Technologies]. St. Petersburg Nauka. [Science]. 2003. P. 179–230. (in Russ.)
8. Rimashevskaya N. M. Sotsial’naya politika sberezheniya naroda: izmeneniya negativnogo trenda zdorov’ya rossiyskogo naseleniya [Social Policy of saving the people: a radical change in the negative trend in the health of the Russian population]. Zdorov’ye naseleniya: problemy i puti resheniya [Population Health: Problems and Solutions]. Vol. 1. No. 1. P. 1–22. (in Russ.)
9. Rybakovsky L. L. Velikaya Otechestvennaya. Osobennosti. Ljudskiye poteri. Faktory pobedy [The Great Patriotic. Features. People’s Losses. Factors of Victory]. Moscow. Ekon-Inform [Econ-Inform]. 2020. 251 p. (in Russ.)
10. Rybakovsky O. L. Vosproizvodstvo naseleniya Rossii: zadachi, tendentsii, faktory i vozmozhnyye rezul’taty k 2024 godu [Russian population reproduction: challenges, trends, factors and possible results by 2024]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2020. Vol. 23. No. 1. P. 53–66. (in Russ.)
11. Kashepov A. V. Vosproizvodstvo naseleniya v Rossii — tendentsii i perspektivy [Population reproduction in Russia — factors and prospects]. Ekonomika i Sotsium [Economy and Society]. 2019. No. 9(64). P. 139–158. (in Russ.)
12. Rybakovsky L. L. Faktory depopulyatsii v Rossii [Factors of depopulation in Russia]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2013. No. 3(61). Р. 4–19. (in Russ.)
13. Tikhomirova T. M., Tikhomirov N. P. Metody analiza vosproizvodstva i zdorov’ya naseleniya Rossii [Methods for Analyzing the Reproduction and Health of the Russian Population]. Moscow. Yunity-Dana [Unity-Dana]. 2022. 359 p. (in Russ.)
14. Andreev E. M, Darsky L. E, Khar’kova T. L. Demograficheskaya istoriya Rossii: 1927–1959 [Demographic History of Russia: 1927–1959]. Moscow. Informatika [Informatics]. 1998. 187p. (in Russ.)
15. Motrich E. L. Etnodemograficheskoye vosproizvodstvo naseleniya na Dal’nem Vostoke Rossii [Ethnodemographic reproduction of population in the Russian Far East]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2005. No. 4(30). P. 102–111. (in Russ.)
16. Fauser V. V. Naseleniye rossiyskogo Severa: problemy vosproizvodstva [Population of the Russian North: problems of reproduction]. Sever i rynok: formirovaniye ekonomicheskogo poryadka [North and Market: Formation of Economic Order]. 2017. No. 3(54). P. 121–133. (in Russ.)
17. Rybakovsky L. L. Depopulatsija i yeyo etnicheskiye aspekty v Rossii [Depopulation and its ethnical aspects in Russia]. Sotsiologicheskiye issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2015. No. 4. P. 18–28. (in Russ.)
18. Kuzmin A. I., Primak T. V., Kuzmina A. A. Vosproizvodstvo naseleniya v regionakh Rossii [Reproduction of population in the regions of Russia]. Ekonomika regiona [Economics of the Region]. 2011. No. 1(25). P. 32–41. (in Russ.)
19. Zhiromskaya V. B., Repinetsky A. I. Demograficheskaya istoriya Rossii v 1930-ye gody. Vzglyad v neizvestnoye [Demographic History of Russia in the 1930s. A Look into the Unknown]. Moscow. Rosspen [Rosspen]. 2001. 277 p. (in Russ.)
20. Ryazantsev S. V., Rybakovsky L. L. Demograficheskoye razvitiye Rossii v 20–21 vekakh: istoricheskoye i geopoliticheskoye izmereniya [Demographic Development of Russia in the XX–XXI Centuries: Historic and Geopolitical Dimensions]. Vestnik RAN [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2021. Vol. 91. No. 9. P. 810–819. DOI: 10.31857/S0869587321090085 (in Russ.)
21. Rybakovsky L. L., Kozhevnikova N. I. Depopulatsiya v Rossii: etapy, osobennosti i vozmozhnosti neytralizatsiyi [Depopulation in Russia: its stages, features and possibilities of neutralization]. Sotsial’no-trudovye issledovaniya [Social and Labor Research]. 2019. No. 2. P. 6–15. (in Russ.)
22. Rybakovsky L. L. 20 let depopulyatsii v Rossii [20 Years of Depopulation in Russia]. Moscow. Ekon-Inform [Econ-Inform]. 2014. 231 p. (in Russ.)
23. Rybakovsky O. L. Balans naseleniya regionov Rossii v 1992–2023 gg. i perepisnyye popravki [Population balance of the regions of Russia in 1992–2023 and census corrections]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2024. Vol. 27. No. 2. P. 71–82. (in Russ.)
2. Ravenstein E. G. The laws of migratoin. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Vol. 52. Part 2. June 1889. P. 214–301.
3. Lee E. S. A theory of migration. Demography. 1966. No. 3. P. 47–57. DOI: 10.2307/2060063.
4. Rybakovsky L. L., Rybakovsky O. L. Depopulyatsiya v Rossii: itogi za 1992–2022 gg., komponenty i kompensatsiya migratsiyey na regional’nom urovne [Depopulation in Russia: Results for 1992– 2022, components and compensation by migration at the regional level]. Sotsial’no-trudovyye issledovaniya [Social and Labor Research]. 2023. No. 51(2). P. 16–26. (in Russ.)
5. Rybakovsky O. L., Tayunova O. A. Demograficheskaya dinamika regionov Rossii i yeyo komponenty v 1959–2017 gg. [Population dynamics of Russian regions and its components in 1959–2017]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2019. Vol. 22. No.1. P. 4–20. (in Russ.)
6. Rybakovsky O. L. Vozrastnaya struktura naseleniya regionov Rossii v nachale 21 veka: komponenty formirovaniya [The age structure of the population of the regions of Russia at the beginning of the 21st century: components of the formation]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2023. Vol. 26. No.1. P. 4–15. DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.1.1 (in Russ.)
7. Pirozhkov S. I., Safarova G. L. Vozrastnaya struktura kak faktor vosproizvodstva naseleniya. Ekonomiko-matematicheskiye issledovaniya [Age structure as a factor of population reproduction]. Matematicheskiye Issledovaniya: Ekonomiko-Matematicheskiye modeli i informatsionnyye tekhnologii. Sbornik trudov SPb EMI RAN № 3 [Economic and Mathematical Studies: Mathematical Models and Information Technologies]. St. Petersburg Nauka. [Science]. 2003. P. 179–230. (in Russ.)
8. Rimashevskaya N. M. Sotsial’naya politika sberezheniya naroda: izmeneniya negativnogo trenda zdorov’ya rossiyskogo naseleniya [Social Policy of saving the people: a radical change in the negative trend in the health of the Russian population]. Zdorov’ye naseleniya: problemy i puti resheniya [Population Health: Problems and Solutions]. Vol. 1. No. 1. P. 1–22. (in Russ.)
9. Rybakovsky L. L. Velikaya Otechestvennaya. Osobennosti. Ljudskiye poteri. Faktory pobedy [The Great Patriotic. Features. People’s Losses. Factors of Victory]. Moscow. Ekon-Inform [Econ-Inform]. 2020. 251 p. (in Russ.)
10. Rybakovsky O. L. Vosproizvodstvo naseleniya Rossii: zadachi, tendentsii, faktory i vozmozhnyye rezul’taty k 2024 godu [Russian population reproduction: challenges, trends, factors and possible results by 2024]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2020. Vol. 23. No. 1. P. 53–66. (in Russ.)
11. Kashepov A. V. Vosproizvodstvo naseleniya v Rossii — tendentsii i perspektivy [Population reproduction in Russia — factors and prospects]. Ekonomika i Sotsium [Economy and Society]. 2019. No. 9(64). P. 139–158. (in Russ.)
12. Rybakovsky L. L. Faktory depopulyatsii v Rossii [Factors of depopulation in Russia]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2013. No. 3(61). Р. 4–19. (in Russ.)
13. Tikhomirova T. M., Tikhomirov N. P. Metody analiza vosproizvodstva i zdorov’ya naseleniya Rossii [Methods for Analyzing the Reproduction and Health of the Russian Population]. Moscow. Yunity-Dana [Unity-Dana]. 2022. 359 p. (in Russ.)
14. Andreev E. M, Darsky L. E, Khar’kova T. L. Demograficheskaya istoriya Rossii: 1927–1959 [Demographic History of Russia: 1927–1959]. Moscow. Informatika [Informatics]. 1998. 187p. (in Russ.)
15. Motrich E. L. Etnodemograficheskoye vosproizvodstvo naseleniya na Dal’nem Vostoke Rossii [Ethnodemographic reproduction of population in the Russian Far East]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2005. No. 4(30). P. 102–111. (in Russ.)
16. Fauser V. V. Naseleniye rossiyskogo Severa: problemy vosproizvodstva [Population of the Russian North: problems of reproduction]. Sever i rynok: formirovaniye ekonomicheskogo poryadka [North and Market: Formation of Economic Order]. 2017. No. 3(54). P. 121–133. (in Russ.)
17. Rybakovsky L. L. Depopulatsija i yeyo etnicheskiye aspekty v Rossii [Depopulation and its ethnical aspects in Russia]. Sotsiologicheskiye issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2015. No. 4. P. 18–28. (in Russ.)
18. Kuzmin A. I., Primak T. V., Kuzmina A. A. Vosproizvodstvo naseleniya v regionakh Rossii [Reproduction of population in the regions of Russia]. Ekonomika regiona [Economics of the Region]. 2011. No. 1(25). P. 32–41. (in Russ.)
19. Zhiromskaya V. B., Repinetsky A. I. Demograficheskaya istoriya Rossii v 1930-ye gody. Vzglyad v neizvestnoye [Demographic History of Russia in the 1930s. A Look into the Unknown]. Moscow. Rosspen [Rosspen]. 2001. 277 p. (in Russ.)
20. Ryazantsev S. V., Rybakovsky L. L. Demograficheskoye razvitiye Rossii v 20–21 vekakh: istoricheskoye i geopoliticheskoye izmereniya [Demographic Development of Russia in the XX–XXI Centuries: Historic and Geopolitical Dimensions]. Vestnik RAN [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2021. Vol. 91. No. 9. P. 810–819. DOI: 10.31857/S0869587321090085 (in Russ.)
21. Rybakovsky L. L., Kozhevnikova N. I. Depopulatsiya v Rossii: etapy, osobennosti i vozmozhnosti neytralizatsiyi [Depopulation in Russia: its stages, features and possibilities of neutralization]. Sotsial’no-trudovye issledovaniya [Social and Labor Research]. 2019. No. 2. P. 6–15. (in Russ.)
22. Rybakovsky L. L. 20 let depopulyatsii v Rossii [20 Years of Depopulation in Russia]. Moscow. Ekon-Inform [Econ-Inform]. 2014. 231 p. (in Russ.)
23. Rybakovsky O. L. Balans naseleniya regionov Rossii v 1992–2023 gg. i perepisnyye popravki [Population balance of the regions of Russia in 1992–2023 and census corrections]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2024. Vol. 27. No. 2. P. 71–82. (in Russ.)
Article
Received: 11.09.2024
Accepted: 06.12.2024
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Rybakovsky, O. L. (2024). Reproduction of the population of the regions of Russia in 1992–2024: results, components, factors. Population, 27(4), 4-17. https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-4-4-17
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
