Climate factor in the demography of Russian regions (2017–2023).
Research Article
How to Cite
Rybakovsky O.L. Climate factor in the demography of Russian regions (2017–2023). Population. 2025. Vol. 28. No. 2. P. 4-15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2025-2-4-15 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The subject of the study is the permanent population of the regions of the Russian Federation on average for 2017–2023. The topic of the study is the climatic factor of birth rates, mortality and interregional migration of the population of the regions of Russia on average for 2017–2023. The purpose of the study is to identify and substantiate the presence or absence of relationships between the climatic factor and demographic indicators of the population of the regions of Russia based on average data for 2017–2023. The research method is demographic statistical analysis. The source of statistics for calculations is Rosstat. Results and conclusions of the study: it is revealed that the relationship between the population mortality indicator — life expectancy at birth with the climatic factor, expressed in the form of the Bodman index, is moderate — the coefficient of determination of the paired linear relationship is 33%. This means that regional differences in the mortality rate of the population of Russia explained by the climatic factor by a third. As the climate becomes more severe, the life expectancy of the population in regions decreases. At the regional level of the Russian Federation, the connection between the Bodman index and interregional migration indicator — coefficient of the effectiveness of migration links, as well as the connection between birth rate indicator — total fertility rate (TFR) with this climate index, is weak. Nevertheless, the problem of climate migration in Russia at the regional level exists. However, it is quite difficult to identify it for the entire set of subjects of the Russian Federation, since the country has single centers of attraction for all other regions of the country, regardless of the climate of the latter. Economic factor plays a greater role here. It is noticeably related to the climate of the regions. The weak relationship between the total fertility rate (TFR) and the climate factor can be explained by heterogeneity of the totality of regions of Russia in terms of significant factors of birth rate, such as religion, type of terrain, characteristics of employment of the local population. Higher birth rate of the population is traditionally characteristic, on the one hand, of the peoples living in the regions of the North of the Russian Federation with a harsh climate, professing shamanism and similar religions. On the other hand — of the peoples of the South of the European part of Russia with a mild climate and the South of Siberia.
Keywords:
demography of Russian regions, birth rate, mortality, interregional population migration, climate factor, Bodman climate severity index, correlation coefficient
References
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15. Rybakovsky O. L. Balans naseleniya regionov Rossii v 1992–2023 gg. i perepisnyye popravki [Population balance of the regions of Russia in 1992–2023 and census corrections]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2024. Vol. 27. No. 2. P. 71–82. DOI: 10.24412/1561-7785-2024-2-71-82 (in Russ.)
Article
Received: 21.02.2025
Accepted: 05.06.2025
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Rybakovsky, O. L. (2025). Climate factor in the demography of Russian regions (2017–2023). Population, 28(2), 4-15. https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2025-2-4-15
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
