Transformation of the population structure in the northern regions of Western Siberia: factors and consequences
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation through grant No. 25-28-00512. URL: https://rscf.ru/project/25-28-00512/.
How to Cite
Goncharova K.S., Shelomentsev A.G. Transformation of the population structure in the northern regions of Western Siberia: factors and consequences. Population. 2025. Vol. 28. No. 2. P. 42-56. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2025-2-42-56 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The relevance of the study lies in the gradual change of the socio-economic conditions for further development of the northern territories of Western Siberia. Traditionally, the basis of their development was oil and gas production, which ensured population growth and infrastructure construction: beginning of development of the oil and gas industry in the 1960s and its further development led to an influx of labor resources to Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs. Attractiveness of these territories for the workforce from other regions was due to high wages and benefits provided there. However, in the context of the current decline in oil production, the key tasks are to preserve the demographic stability and social well-being of northern cities. Thus, the purpose of the study was to analyze the current state and prospects for socio-demographic development of the northern regions of Western Siberia under the conditions of further decrease in oil and gas production.
The analysis was based on data from the population censuses of the late 1980s (data from earlier All–Union censuses of 1959 and 1979 were partially used for comparison) — 2021. As a result, the main stages of development of the northern cities of Western Siberia were considered, changes in their socio-demographic structure and migration processes were analyzed. There has been revealed predominantly negative dynamics of the population in the territories under consideration, that leads to a change in the sex and age composition of these territories, characterized by increasing dynamics in population aging and growing proportion of women among the entire population. There is also a gradual replacement of the Russian population by other national groups (mainly from Central Asia). It is concluded that further diversification of the economy of these territories is necessary — creation of new types of economic activity that will save jobs and prevent further outflow of people. An important role in this process is played by the state policy, the analysis and assessment of which is a promising direction for further research.
Keywords:
socio-demographic transformation, shift method, migration, territories of new development, Western Siberia, population aging
References
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3. Lizunova L. V. Tendentsii i perspektivy sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya munitsipalnykh obrazovanij YaNAO [Trends and prospects for socio-economic development of the municipalities of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug]. EGO: Ekonomika. Gosudarstvo. Obshchestvo. [EGO: Economics. State. Society]. 2012. No. 4(11). Article No. 13. (in Russ.)
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5. Orudzhieva A. G. Osobennosti demograficheskogo razvitiya gorodov Yamalo-Nenetskogo avtonomnogo okruga v 90-e gody 20 — nachale 21 v [Demographic features of urban development of the Yamalo-Nenets autonomous district in the 90-s of XX — early XX century]. Voprosy upravleniya [Management Issues]. 2013. No. 4(25). P. 156–168. (in Russ.)
6. Kuzmin A. I., Badina A. A. Opyt sotsialnogo prognozirovaniya krupnogo severnogo goroda [Experience in the Social Forecasting of a Large Northern City]. Ekaterinburg. Chinovnik [Official]. 2006. 183 p. (in Russ.)
7. Korneeva Ya. A., Simonova N. N. Adaptatsionnyje strategii rabotnikov vakhtovoj organizatsii truda pri razlichnoj spetsifike proizvodstva v usloviyakh Severa [Adaptation strategies of shift workers with different production specifics in the conditions of the North]. Obshchestvennyje nauki [Social Sciences]. 2011. No. 4. P. 434–441. (in Russ.)
8. Lobova V. A. Psikhologicheskaya adaptatsiya rabochikh mezhregionalnoj vakhty v kontekste sokhraneniya zdorovya [Psychological adaptation of interregional shift workers in the context of health preservation]. Vestnik ugrovedeniya [Bulletin of Ugric Studies]. 2011. No. 1(4). P. 81–89. (in Russ.)
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11. Luzina T. V., Malashkevich O. A. Vakhtovyj metod kak osobaya forma organizatsii truda v ramkakh migratsionnoj politiki RF [Shift method as a special form of labor organization within the framework of the migration policy of the Russian Federation]. Pravovyje sredstva stimulirovaniya aktivnoj zanyatosti i povysheniya konkurentosposobnosti na rynke truda: sbornik nauchnykh statej [Legal Means of Stimulating Active Employment and Increasing Competitiveness in the Labor Market]. Tyumen. 2019. P. 30–42. (in Russ.)
12. Fauzer V. V., Nazarova I. G. Rossijskij Sever: problemy rabotayushchikh vakhtovym metodom i gosudarstvennaya politika pereselenij [The Russian North: problems of shift workers and the State policy of resettlement]. Korporativnoje upravlenije i innovatsionnoje razvitije ekonomiki Severa: Vestnik Nauchno-issledovatelskogo tsentra korporativnogo prava, upravleniya i venchurnogo investirovaniya Syktyvkarskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Corporate Governance and Innovative Economic Development of the North]. 2011. No. 2. P. 14. (in Russ.)
13. Kramar V. P., Andreev O. P. Voprosy effektivnosti gosudarstvennoj sotsialnoj politiki v otnoshenii zhitelej severnykh territorij, rabotayushchikh vakhtovym metodom [Issues of the effectiveness of state social policy in relation to residents of the northern territories working in shifts]. Rossijskij Sever: traektoriya i perspektivy sotsialnogo razvitiya [The Russian North: Trajectory and Prospects of Social Development]. Eds. N. A. Volgina, V. N. Pivnenko. Moscow. 2006. P. 295–301. (in Russ.)
14. Ermakov S. A. Voprosy organizatsii truda pri primenenii vakhtovogo metoda na predpriyatiyakh [Issues of labor organization in the use of the shift method at enterprises]. Sovremennyje tendentsii v ekonomike i upravlenii: novyj vzglyad [Modern Trends in Economy and Management: A New Look]. 2010. No. 3–1. P. 190–193. (in Russ.)
15. Borisov D. V. Vakhtovyj metod kak osobaya forma organizatsii trudovogo protsessa: na primere predpriyatij neftegazovoj promyshlennosti [Shift Method as a Special Form of Organization of the Labor Process: on the Example of Oil and Gas Industry Enterprises]. Cand. Diss. Moscow. 2004. 143 p. (in Russ.)
16. Andreev O. P., Arabsky A. K., Borovikov V. A., Kramar V. S. Sistema menedzhmenta vakhtovogo metoda raboty predpriyatiya v usloviyakh Krajnego Severa [The management system of the shift method of the enterprise in the conditions of the Far North]. Gazovaya promyshlennost’ [Gas Industry Journal]. 2007. No. 9. P. 28–31. (in Russ.)
17. Chupasheva E. V. Rol’ mezhkulturnykh kompetentsij v upravlenii personalom predpriyatij severnykh regionov Rossii [The role of intercultural competences in personnel management at the enterprises in the northern regions of Russia]. Kazanskaya nauka [Kazan Science]. 2014. No. 11. P. 275–277. (in Russ.)
18. Kerimov K. P. Konfliktogennyje faktory mezhetnicheskikh vzaimodejstvij v severnom regione (na primere Tyumenskoj oblasti) [Conflictogenic factors of interethnic interactions in the Northern region (on the example of the Tyumen region)]. Vestnik Chuvashskogo universiteta [Bulletin of the Chuvash University]. 2006. No. 7. P. 191–196. (in Russ.)
19. Loginov V. G. Vakhtovyj metod kak osnovnoj istochnik rabochej sily dlya osvojeniya neftegazovykh resursov zapolyarnykh rajonov Arktiki [Rotation system as the basic source of workforce for the development of oil and gas resources in the Arctic polar regions]. Izvestiya Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo gornogo universiteta [News of the Ural State Mining University]. 2021. No. 2(62). P. 191–201. DOI: 10.21440/2307-2091-2021-2-191-201 (in Russ.)
20. Khajdukova E. S. Sovremennyje migratsionnyje protsessy KhMAO — Yugry [Current migration processes of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug — Yugra]. Ekonomicheskije i sotsialnyje faktory razvitiya narodnogo khozyajstva: sbornik materialov II Vserossijskoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferentsii aspirantov i magistrantov, Khanty-Mansijsk, 31 yanvarya 2017 goda [Economic and Social Factors of National Economy Development. Proceedings of the II All-Russian scientific and practical conference of postgraduate and master students, Khanty-Mansiysk, January 31, 2017]. Khanty-Mansiysk. Yugorskiy gosudarstvennyy universitet [Yugra State University]. 2017. P. 99–106. (in Russ.)
21. Oparin D. A. Locals and immigrants on the Yamal Peninsula. Social boundaries and variations in migratory experience. Asian Ethnicity. 2017. No. 19. Iss. 2. P. 251–269. DOI: 10.1080/14631369.2017.1386543
22. Uspenskaya T. N. Bazovyje determinanty migratsionnogo povedeniya naseleniya KhMAO [Basic determinants of the migration behaviour of population in Khanty-Mansi autonomous area]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2005. No. 4(30). P. 112–121. (in Russ.)
Article
Received: 09.01.2025
Accepted: 09.06.2025
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Goncharova, K. S., & Shelomentsev, A. G. (2025). Transformation of the population structure in the northern regions of Western Siberia: factors and consequences. Population, 28(2), 42-56. https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2025-2-42-56
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
