Demographic potential: from the history of the concept
Acknowledgments
RFBRproject No.19–011–00626
How to Cite
Rybakovsky O.L., Tayunova O.A. Demographic potential: from the history of the concept. Population. 2019. Vol. 22. No. 2. P. 17-25. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/1561-7785-2019-00012 (in Russ.).
Abstract
This article discusses the main points of the formation and development of the concept«demographic potential» used for the purposes of management and forecasting in a changing environment. The need for demographic potential as an instrumental, supporting notion arose when researchers began to examine possible effects of demographic processes and their impact on the structure and size of population in the future, i.e. build population projections and population development models. Historically, researchers studied demographic potential separately for each component of the overall population growth. Beginning of the study of fertility potential is associated with the name of R. E. Fisher, life potential — with the work of L. Hersch, migration capacity — with the works of J. Q. Stewart, G. K. Zipf, S. A. Staufer and W. Izard. Attempts to assess the joint effect of different components of the overall population growth were episodic. Only in the 30s of the twentieth century the integrated synthesis indicators began to be used for describing the demographic potential. One of the indicators for capacity of population reproduction may be net reproduction rate. Modern interpretations of the potential of changes in fertility and mortality, migration capacity have a wider purpose and filling than at the time of these concepts’ formation. Demographic potential in a narrow sense is the potential population reproduction, including changes in fertility and mortality; in a broader sense, it is the total potential of population — potential of reproduction and migration potential, including possible changes in the population size and structure due to births, deaths, immigration and emigration.
Keywords:
demographic potential, potential of population reproduction, migration potential, potential of growth and increase of population, components of the overall population dynamics
References
Mal’tuzianstvo [Malthusianism]. Filosofskiy entsiklopedicheskiy slovar’ [Philosophical Encyclopedic Dictionary]. Eds. L.F. Il’ichev, P.N. Fedoseyev, et.al. Moscow. Sovetskaya entsiklopediya [Soviet Encyclopedia]. 1983. (in Russ.).
Sauvy A. Obshchaya teoriya naseleniya [General Theory of Population]. Vol. 2. Moscow. Progress. 1977. (in Russ.).
Fisher R. A. The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection. New-York. Dover Publications. 1930.
Неrsсh L. De la demographic actuelle a la demographic potentielle. Geneve. 1944.
Izard W. Metody regional’nogo analiza: vvedeniye v nauku o regionakh [Methods of Regional Analysis: an Introduction to the Science of Regions]. Moscow. Progress. 1966. (in Russ.).
Ediev D. M. Teoriya i prilozheniya demograficheskikh potentsialov [Demographic theory and applications capabilities]. Author’s abstract of Doctor’s diss. 2008. P. 4. (in Russ.).
Demograficheskiy entsiklopedicheskiy slovar’ [Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary] Ed. D. I. Valentey. Moscow. Sovetskaya entsiklopediya [Soviet Encyclopedia]. 1985. (in Russ.).
Yermakov S. P. Sovremennyye vozmozhnosti integral’noy otsenki mediko-demograficheskikh protsessov [Modern Integral Estimation of Medico-Demographic Processes]. Moscow. ISPI RAN [Institute for Socio-Political Research RAS]. 1996. (in Russ.).
Andreyev E. M. Metod komponent v analize prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Method of components in the analysis of life expectancy]. Vestnik statistiki [Bulletin of Statistics]. 1982. № 9. P. 42–47. (in Russ.).
Ravenstein E. G. The laws of migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1885. Vol.48. P. 167–227.
Ravenstein E. G. The laws of migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1889. Vol.52. P. 241– 301.
Perevedentsev V. I. Voprosy metodiki izucheniya sovremennoy migratsii naseleniya v SSSR [Methodical issues of studying current population migration in the USSR]. Voprosy trudovykh resursov v rayonakh Sibiri [Issues of Labor Resources in Siberian Regions]. Novosibirsk. 1961. (in Russ.).
Rybakovsky L. L. Problemy formirovaniya narodonaseleniya Dal’nego Vostoka [Problems of the Formation of Population in the Far East]. Khabarovsk. 1969. (in Russ.).
Garner. B. G. Modeli geografii gorodov i razmeshcheniya naselennykh punktov [Models in geography of cities and location of settlements]. Modeli v geografii [Models in Geography]. Moscow. Progress. 1971. (in Russ.).
Rybakovsky L. L., Kozhevnikova N. I. Otsenka vozmozhnykh i neobkhodimykh masshtabov privlecheniya immigrantov v Rossiyu [Estimation of Possible and Necessary Extent of Attracting Immigrants to Russia]. Moscow. Econ-Inform. 2010. (in Russ.).
Demograficheskiy ponyatiynyy slovar’ [Demographic Conceptual Dictionary] Ed. Rybakovsky L. L. Moscow. 2003. (in Russ.).
Lotka A. J., Sharpe F. R. A problem in age-distribution. Philosophical Magazine. 1911. Vol. 21.
Bourgeois-Pisha J. Analiz naseleniya v protsesse yego stabilizatsii [Analysis of population in the process of stabilization]. Demograficheskiye modeli [Demographic Models]. Moscow. Statistika [Statistics]. 1977. (in Russ.).
Suknjova S. A. Demograficheskiy potentsial vosproizvodstva naseleniya severnogo regiona (na primere respubliki Sakha (Yakutiya) [Demographic reproduction capacity of the northern region population (the case of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)]. Author’s abstract of Doctor’s diss. 2011. (in Russ.).
Mayo Smith R. Statistika i sotsiologiya [Statistics and Sociology]. Moscow. 1901. S. Skimurin Publishers. (in Russ.).
Sauvy A. Obshchaya teoriya naseleniya [General Theory of Population]. Vol. 2. Moscow. Progress. 1977. (in Russ.).
Fisher R. A. The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection. New-York. Dover Publications. 1930.
Неrsсh L. De la demographic actuelle a la demographic potentielle. Geneve. 1944.
Izard W. Metody regional’nogo analiza: vvedeniye v nauku o regionakh [Methods of Regional Analysis: an Introduction to the Science of Regions]. Moscow. Progress. 1966. (in Russ.).
Ediev D. M. Teoriya i prilozheniya demograficheskikh potentsialov [Demographic theory and applications capabilities]. Author’s abstract of Doctor’s diss. 2008. P. 4. (in Russ.).
Demograficheskiy entsiklopedicheskiy slovar’ [Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary] Ed. D. I. Valentey. Moscow. Sovetskaya entsiklopediya [Soviet Encyclopedia]. 1985. (in Russ.).
Yermakov S. P. Sovremennyye vozmozhnosti integral’noy otsenki mediko-demograficheskikh protsessov [Modern Integral Estimation of Medico-Demographic Processes]. Moscow. ISPI RAN [Institute for Socio-Political Research RAS]. 1996. (in Russ.).
Andreyev E. M. Metod komponent v analize prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Method of components in the analysis of life expectancy]. Vestnik statistiki [Bulletin of Statistics]. 1982. № 9. P. 42–47. (in Russ.).
Ravenstein E. G. The laws of migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1885. Vol.48. P. 167–227.
Ravenstein E. G. The laws of migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1889. Vol.52. P. 241– 301.
Perevedentsev V. I. Voprosy metodiki izucheniya sovremennoy migratsii naseleniya v SSSR [Methodical issues of studying current population migration in the USSR]. Voprosy trudovykh resursov v rayonakh Sibiri [Issues of Labor Resources in Siberian Regions]. Novosibirsk. 1961. (in Russ.).
Rybakovsky L. L. Problemy formirovaniya narodonaseleniya Dal’nego Vostoka [Problems of the Formation of Population in the Far East]. Khabarovsk. 1969. (in Russ.).
Garner. B. G. Modeli geografii gorodov i razmeshcheniya naselennykh punktov [Models in geography of cities and location of settlements]. Modeli v geografii [Models in Geography]. Moscow. Progress. 1971. (in Russ.).
Rybakovsky L. L., Kozhevnikova N. I. Otsenka vozmozhnykh i neobkhodimykh masshtabov privlecheniya immigrantov v Rossiyu [Estimation of Possible and Necessary Extent of Attracting Immigrants to Russia]. Moscow. Econ-Inform. 2010. (in Russ.).
Demograficheskiy ponyatiynyy slovar’ [Demographic Conceptual Dictionary] Ed. Rybakovsky L. L. Moscow. 2003. (in Russ.).
Lotka A. J., Sharpe F. R. A problem in age-distribution. Philosophical Magazine. 1911. Vol. 21.
Bourgeois-Pisha J. Analiz naseleniya v protsesse yego stabilizatsii [Analysis of population in the process of stabilization]. Demograficheskiye modeli [Demographic Models]. Moscow. Statistika [Statistics]. 1977. (in Russ.).
Suknjova S. A. Demograficheskiy potentsial vosproizvodstva naseleniya severnogo regiona (na primere respubliki Sakha (Yakutiya) [Demographic reproduction capacity of the northern region population (the case of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)]. Author’s abstract of Doctor’s diss. 2011. (in Russ.).
Mayo Smith R. Statistika i sotsiologiya [Statistics and Sociology]. Moscow. 1901. S. Skimurin Publishers. (in Russ.).
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Rybakovsky, O. L., & Tayunova, O. A. (2019). Demographic potential: from the history of the concept. Population, 22(2), 17-25. https://doi.org/10.19181/1561-7785-2019-00012
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES