Demographic drama on the path of perspective development of Russia

  • Abel G. Aganbegyan Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration aganbegyan@ranepa.ru
How to Cite
Aganbegyan A.G. Demographic drama on the path of perspective development of Russia. Population. 2017. Vol. 20. No. 3. P. 4-23. (in Russ.).

Abstract

The article shows deterioration of the socio-demographic situation in Russia during the period of stagnation and recession of 2013-2017 — increase in the number of deaths from 2013 and decline in the number of births from 2015 that resulted in a hundred-thousand depopulation in the first half of 2017. In the coming years up to the 30s years of the 21st century the depopulation will increase due to a sharp decrease in the number of women of child-bearing age with a probable decline in the birth rate by half. At the same time the number of able-bodied population will decrease, according to different forecast versions, by 5-10 million people. In this context the article considers measures for mitigating these negative trends through raising total fertility rate, more significant reduction of mortality and particularly that in working age, raising pensioning age to increase the number of able-bodied population.
Keywords:
fertility, mortality, depopulation, low, medium and high scenarios of demographic development forecast, pensioning age, ablebodied population and employment

Author Biography

Abel G. Aganbegyan, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
RAS Academician, Head of Chair

References

Demograficheskiy yezhegodnik Rossii 2015 [The Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2015]. Statistical handbook. Rosstat. Moscow. 2016. (in Russ.)



Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoye polozheniye Rossii. Razdel «Demografiya» [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia. Section Demography]. Rosstat. Moscow. 2016. 2017. (in Russ.)



Baza dannykh VOZ [World Health Organization database]. Available at: www.data.who.euro.int/hfdh/ (in Russ.)



Aganbegian A.G. Demografiya i zdravookhraneniye Rossii na rubezhe vekov [Demography and Health Care in Russia at the Turn of the Century]. Moscow. Delo [Business]. 2016. (in Russ.)



Ulumbekova G.E. Zdravookhraneniye Rossii. Chto nado delat' [Health Care in Russia. What is to be done?]. Moscow. GEOTAR-Media. 2015. 704 р. (in Russ.)
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:

APA
Aganbegyan, A. G. (2017). Demographic drama on the path of perspective development of Russia. Population, 20(3), 4-23. Retrieved from https://www.jour.fnisc.ru/index.php/population/article/view/6550
Section
DEMOGRAPHICS: ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS