Demographic and labor potential of Russia in the context of Sustainable Development Goals
How to Cite
Lokosov V.V., Rybalchenko S.I.R.I., Katkova I.P. Demographic and labor potential of Russia in the context of Sustainable Development Goals. Population. 2017. Vol. 20. No. 4. P. 19-43. (in Russ.).
Abstract
Based on the analysis of the average version of the UN forecast for the period up to 2100, the article shows that current socio-demographic processes in Russia, reflecting the mismatch of measures of the conducted demographic policy, can predetermine further depopulation of the population throughout the 21st century. According to the forecast data, even provision in this country of an increase in the total fertility rate up to 1.91 and a reduction in the probability of premature deaths among the population in the most active reproductive and working age groups from 15 to 60 years by more than three times will be insufficient for preventing the reduction of natural reproduction of the population. In the context of the sustainable development in Russia there are considered the priority issues of integrative measures of the demographic policy to promote fertility, reduce the risks of poverty and premature death of population from noncommunicable diseases, ensure health and well-being of families with children from an early age of the child. From the authors' point of view, this approach should facilitate strengthening of the country's labor potential as a necessary condition for successful socio-demographic and economic development.
Keywords:
forecast of demographic trends, Sustainable Development Goals, fertility, premature mortality, social inequality, healthy life expectancy
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United Nations. Economic and Social Council. Commission on Population and Develop-ment. World demographic trends. Report of the Secretary-General. E/CN.9/2016/6. 27 January 2016 Advance unedited version. 26p. Available at: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/commission/pdf/49/E.CN.9.2016.6_advanced.pdf (Accessed: 17 September 2017)
Arkhangel'sky V.N., Ivanova A.Ye., Rybakovskiy L.L. Rezul'tativnost' demograficheskoy politiki Rossii [Effectiveness of Russia's Demographic Policy]. Moscow. Ekon-Inform. 2016. 307 p. (in Russ.)
Naseleniye Rossii 2013. Dvadtsat' pervyy yezhegodnyy demograficheskiy doklad [Popula-tion of Russia 2013. Twenty-first annual demographic report]. Moscow. Higher School of Economics. 2015. 432 p. (in Russ.)
Raksha A. Trends in fertility in the Russian Federation]. Aist na kryshe. Demograficheskiy zhurnal [Stork on the Roof. Demographic Journal]. 2016. № 1. P. 28-35. Available at: https://www.proaist.ru/journal/vypusk-1/tendentsii-izmeneniya-rozhdaemosti-v-rossiyskoy-federatsii/ (in Russ.)
Zakharov S. Fertility in Russia: the current state and various optics of measuring its level. Aist na kryshe. Demograficheskiy zhurnal [Stork on the Roof. Demographic Journal] 2016. № 2. P. 8-14. Available at: https://www.proaist.ru/journal/vypusk-2/rozhdaemost-v-rossii-sovremennoe-sostoyanie-i-razlichnaya-optika-izmereniy-ee-urovnya-/ (in Russ.)
Yelizarov V., Levina V. Proyekt. Stareniye naseleniya v Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Semeynaya politika v Rossii: vozmozhno li zamedleniye stareniya naseleniya putom mer, napravlen-nykh na povysheniye urovnya rozhdayemosti? [Aging of the population in the Russian Federation. Family policy in Russia: is it possible to slow the aging of the population by measures aimed at raising the birth rate?]. Oktyabr' 2015. [October 2015]. P. 23, 42. Available at: //docplayer.ru/30423358-Semeynaya-politika-v-rossii.html (in Russ.)
Doklad o chelovecheskom razvitii v Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Tseli ustoychivogo razvitiya OON i Rossiya [Human Development Report 2016. Russian Federation. The UN Sustainable Devel-opment Goals and Russia.]. Analiticheskiy tsentr pri Pravitel'stve Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Analytical Center under the RF Government]. Moscow. 2016. 298 p. (in Russ.)
Popova R.I. Methodological approaches to assessing the availability of high-quality food for Russian households. Narodonaseleniye [Population]. 2013. № 2. P. 85-93. (in Russ.)
Puti dostizheniya vseob"yemlyushchego ekonomicheskogo rosta. Rossiyskaya federatsiya: Kompleksnoye diagnosticheskoye issle-dovaniye ekonomiki [Ways to achieve comprehen-sive economic growth. Russian Federation: Comprehensive diagnostic study of the econo-my]. Gruppa Vsemirnogo Banka. [World Bank group]. Moscow. Alexpublishers.ru. 2016. 230 p. ISBN 978-5-9618- 0112-5. Available at: http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/235471484167009780/Dec27-SCD-paper-rus.pdf (Accessed: 16 September 2017). (in Russ.)
Bednost' i neravenstva v sovremennoy Rossii: 10 let spustya. Analiticheskiy doklad [Pov-erty and Inequality in Modern Russia: 10 Years Later. Analytical report]. Institut sotsiologii RAN. [Institute of Sociology RAS]. Moscow. 2013. P.1-2, 15, 25. Available at: http://www.sociology-institute.ru/analytical_report_bednost_i_neravenstva.html. [po sos-toyaniyu na 19.10.2013]. (in Russ.)
Doklad o mirovom razvitii 2006. Sotsial'naya spravedlivost' i razvitiye [Social justice and development 2006]. Review. World Bank. Washington. 34 p. Available at: http://www.un.org/ru/development/surveys/docs/worlddev2006.pdf. (Accessed: 16 September 2017). (in Russ.)
Politicheskaya deklaratsiya Soveshchaniya vysokogo urovnya General'noy Assamblei po profilaktike neinfektsionnykh zabo-levaniy i bor'be s nimi [General Assembly of the Unit-ed Nations. Political Declaration of the High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases]. 2011. Available at: http://www.un.org/ru/ga/ncdmeeting2011/documents.shtml .( Accessed: 6 September 2015). (in Russ.)
Katkova I.P., Katkov V.I. Health care as the most important resource for social and eco-nomic development of the country. Narodonaseleniye. [Population] 2014. №4. PP.104-114. (in Russ.)
Yevropeyskaya baza dannykh "ZDV", YERB VOZ [European HFA database, WHO / Europe. (HFA-DB) (July 2016)]. Available at: https://gateway.euro.who.int/ru/datasets/european-health-for-all-database/ (Accessed: 20 September 2017). (in Russ.)
Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010. GDB PROFILE: RUSSIA. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). An independent global health re-search center at the University of Washington. Available at: http://www.healthdata.org/results/country-profiles. (Accessed: 1 June 2015)
Global'noye bremya bolezney (Global Durden of Disease): porozhdeniye dokazatel'stv, napravleniye politiki. Regional'noye izdaniye dlya Yevropy i Tsentral'noy Azii. [Global Burden of Disease (Global Durden of Disease): generating evidence, policy direction. Re-gional publication for Europe and Central Asia.]. Institut po izmereniyu pokazateley zdo-rov'ya i otsenke sostoyaniya zdorov'ya universiteta Vashington, Set' chelovecheskogo razvitiya Vsemirnogo Banka. World Bank. Washington. IHME. 2013. P. 11-12, 35-37, 62.
GBD Compare | IHME Viz. Hub. Available at: https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare (Accessed: 16 January 2018).
Korotayev A.V., S.I. Rybal'chenko, Yu.V. Zin'kina, et. al. Nadvigayushchayasya demo-graficheskaya katastrofa v Rossii i kak yeyo predupredit' (prognozy demograficheskogo budushchego Rossii v usloviyakh ekonomicheskogo krizisa) Ekspress-doklad [The impend-ing demographic catastrophe in Russia and how to prevent it (forecasts of the demographic future of Russia in the conditions of the economic crisis). Express report]. Moscow State Uni-versity. 2015. 50 p.
Katkova I.P., Katkov V.I. Ekonomicheskiy krizis i problemy ukrepleniya potentsiala ob-shchestvennogo zdravookhraneniya Rossii [The economic crisis and the problems of strengthening the public health potential of Russia]. Problemy sovremennoy ekonomiki [Problems of the Modern Economy. Eurasian international scientific-analytical edition]. 2016. № 2(58). P. 45-51.
United Nations. General Assembly. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September 2015. 70/1. Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable De-velopment. A/RES/70/1. PP. 13-35. Available at: http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/70/1&Lang=E (Accessed: 26 April 2016)
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Lokosov, V. V., Rybalchenko, S. I. R. I., & Katkova, I. P. (2017). Demographic and labor potential of Russia in the context of Sustainable Development Goals. Population, 20(4), 19-43. Retrieved from https://www.jour.fnisc.ru/index.php/population/article/view/6565
Section
DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY AND FERTILITY
