Energy-demographic history of the modern civilization
Research Article
How to Cite
Tetelmin V.V. Energy-demographic history of the modern civilization. Population. 2021. Vol. 24. No. 2. P. 142-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2021.24.2.13 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The continuous increase in human energy production per caput is accompanied by an increase in the world population. The work considers the demographic history of civilization as a function of the growing production and use of the energy by mankind. The evolution in the «energy-man» system took place relatively safely for the biosphere and a man up to the value of the per caput energy consumption of 11,000 kW*h/year*person that was achieved by civilization in 1950. Modern high per caput energy consumption of civilization is achieved at the cost of the loss of the environment-forming functioning by the biosphere and at the cost of the loss of the psychophysical health of a person. We can see the prospects for development of civilization through analysis of the energy-demographic history of mankind over the past 200 years. The features of fertility and mortality in the world are considered depending on the per caput energy consumption with a forecast for the future. Two limits to the growth of global energy production were formulated in terms of preventing harm to humans. Corresponding analytical dependencies are proposed. To prevent an ecological and demographic catastrophe and ensure transition of civilization to sustainable development, it is proposed to reduce the world energy production to 140*1012 kW*h/year with a decrease in per caput energy consumption to a relatively safe level of 18,000 kW*h/year*person, which existed in society in 1970. After this «step back» civilization will enter a state of relatively safe existence.
Keywords:
civilization, population, society, life, energy, energy consumption, demographic indices, fertility, mortality
References
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4. Pimashkov P. I., Tetelmin V. V. Biosfera i chelovek. Energetika vzaimodeistvia. [Biosphere and Man. Interaction Energy]. Moscow. LENAND. 2019. 336 p. ISBN 978-5-9710-6652-1. (in Russ.)
5. Kapitsa S. P. Paradoksi rosta. Zakony razvitija chelovechestva. [Paradoxes of Growth. The Laws of Human Development]. Moscow. Alpina Non-Fiction. 2010. 70 p. ISBN 978-5-91671-047-2. (in Russ.)
6. Holdren J. Population and the energy problem. Population and environment. Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies. 1991. No. 3. P. 231-255.
7. Tetelmin V. V., Vasilenko A. B. Sovremennaja energetika i energetika buduchego. [Modern Energy and Energy of the Future]. Moscow. LENAND. 2018. 240 p. ISBN 978-5-9710-5170-1. (in Russ.)
8. Calhoun J. Environment and Population: Problems and Adaptation. An Experimental book integrating statements by 162 contributors. Praeger. 1983. 486 p. ISBN 0-275-90955-7.
9. Tetelmin V. V. Yazev V. A. Osnovy prirodopolzovanija. [Fundamentals of Rational Nature Management]. Moscow. Intellect. 2012. 288 p. ISBN 978-5-91559-122-5. (in Russ.)
10. Meadows D. L. Predely rosta. [Limits of Growth]. Moscow. 1990. 316 p. (in Russ.)
11. Tetelmin V. V., Pimashkov P. I. Biosfera I chelovek. Globalnoje poteplenije. [Biosphere and Man. Global Warming]. Moscow. LENAND. 2021. 336 p. ISBN 978-5-9710-7733-6. (in Russ.)
Article
Received: 11.02.2021
Accepted: 23.06.2021
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Tetelmin, V. V. (2021). Energy-demographic history of the modern civilization. Population, 24(2), 142-153. https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2021.24.2.13
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
