Assessment of socio-economic risks by method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators
Research Article
How to Cite
Lokosov V.V. Assessment of socio-economic risks by method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators. Population. 2021. Vol. 24. No. 3. P. 8-17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2021.24.3.1 (in Russ.).
Abstract
Method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators of social development, including assessment of socio-economic risks, has been developed in the national sociology, economics, and other social sciences about three decades. For the first time development of the method as a scientific problem was stated in 1994, and there was made an attempt to construct such scale of indicators. Development of the method is going productively. There have been published a series of research works, dissertations that directly or indirectly develop or apply this method, propose different variants of constructing a scale of indicators. We have three basic components of situation diagnosis: the existing social system, the risks (challenges, threats) hampering progressive development of this system, and the extremely critical values of the risk indicators, a certain "red line", going beyond which means an increase in the probability of radical changes and further— collapse of the existing system, its transitional state and reorganization. The research and management tasks are to counteract such risks and to prevent entry of the society into the critical zone; or vice versa, to stimulate transformation of the system. The article provides an assessment of the socio-economic risks by method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators that leads to conclusion about a certain, far from complete and sufficient departure of the Russian society from the critical line of the 90s of the past century, and therefore about a tendency to reduction of the risk of another dismantlement of the existing social system. Along with these positive changes, dangerous disproportions and critical risks remain in many socio-economic indicators, primarily related to demography, population health, standards and quality of life.
Keywords:
social system, method, socio-economic risks, indicators, extremely critical (threshold) values, dynamics of risks, management of risks
References
1. Glasyev S. Yu. Upravleniye razvitiyem ekonomiki [Management of Economic Development]. Course of lectures. Moscow. 2019. 644 p. (in Russ.)
2. Lokosov V. V. Stabil'nost' obshchestva i sistema predel'no-kriticheskikh pokazateley yego razvitiya [Stability of society and the system of extreme critical indicators of its development]. Sotsiologicheskiye issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 1998. No. 4. P. 86-94. (in Russ.)
3. Senchagov V. K. Metodologiya opredeleniya porogovykh znacheniy osnovnykh (prioritetnykh) faktorov riskov i ugroz ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti khozyaystvuyushchikh sub"yektov [Methodology for estimating the threshold values of the main (priority) factors of risks and threats to the economic security of business]. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo [Economics, Taxes & Law]. 2014. No. 4. P. 73-78. (in Russ.)
4. Glazyev S. Yu., Lokosov V. V. Otsenka predel'no kriticheskikh znacheniy pokazateley sostoyaniya rossiyskogo obshchestva i ikh ispol'zovaniye v upravleniye sotsial'no-ekonomicheskim razvitiyem [Assessment of the extremely critical values of the indicators of the state of the Russian society and their application in managing socio-economic development]. Vestnik Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2012. Vol. 82. No. 7. P. 587-614. (in Russ.)
5. Mityakov S. N., Fedoseeva T. A. Mityakov E. S. Sistema indikatorov ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti munitsipaliteta kak sostavnoy element mnogourovnevoy sistemy ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti [The system of indicators of economic security of a municipality as an integral element of a multilevel system of economic security]. Mir novoy ekonomiki [The World of New Economy]. Vol. 14. 2020. No. 4. P. 67-80. (in Russ.)
6. Gorbana A. N., Tyukina T. A., Pokidysheva L. I., Smirnova E. V. Dynamic and thermodynamic models of adaptation. Physics of Life Reviews. Vol. 37. July 2021. P. 17-64.
7. Pobyvaev S. A., Selivanov A. I., Troshin D. V. Problemy primeneniya metodologii porogovykh znacheniy dlya opredeleniya sostoyaniya sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh sistem [Questions of application of the methodology of threshold values for determining the state of socio-economic systems]. Mir novoy ekonomiki [The World of New Economy]. 2018. Vol. 12. No. 2. P. 90-97. (in Russ.)
8. Sakovich A. V. Kriticheskaya zona porogovykh znacheniy sotsial'nykh indikatorov ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti [Critical zone of the threshold values of social indicators of economic security]. Author's abstract of Cand. Diss. Moscow. 2013. (in Russ.)
9. Shevyakov A. Yu. Neravenstvo dokhodov kak faktor ekonomicheskoy i demograficheskoy dinamiki [Income Inequality as a Factor of Economic and Demographic Dynamics]. Moscow. 2010. P. 15. (in Russ.)
10. Rutkevich A. M. C. G. Yung o sovremennosti [Jung on modernity]. Filosofskiye nauki [Philosophical Sciences]. 1989. No. 8. P. 113. (in Russ.)
11. Dogan M. Legitimnost' rezhimov i krizis doveriya [Legitimacy of regimes and crisis of confidence]. Sotsiologicheskiye issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 1994. No. 6. P. 151. (in Russ.)
2. Lokosov V. V. Stabil'nost' obshchestva i sistema predel'no-kriticheskikh pokazateley yego razvitiya [Stability of society and the system of extreme critical indicators of its development]. Sotsiologicheskiye issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 1998. No. 4. P. 86-94. (in Russ.)
3. Senchagov V. K. Metodologiya opredeleniya porogovykh znacheniy osnovnykh (prioritetnykh) faktorov riskov i ugroz ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti khozyaystvuyushchikh sub"yektov [Methodology for estimating the threshold values of the main (priority) factors of risks and threats to the economic security of business]. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo [Economics, Taxes & Law]. 2014. No. 4. P. 73-78. (in Russ.)
4. Glazyev S. Yu., Lokosov V. V. Otsenka predel'no kriticheskikh znacheniy pokazateley sostoyaniya rossiyskogo obshchestva i ikh ispol'zovaniye v upravleniye sotsial'no-ekonomicheskim razvitiyem [Assessment of the extremely critical values of the indicators of the state of the Russian society and their application in managing socio-economic development]. Vestnik Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2012. Vol. 82. No. 7. P. 587-614. (in Russ.)
5. Mityakov S. N., Fedoseeva T. A. Mityakov E. S. Sistema indikatorov ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti munitsipaliteta kak sostavnoy element mnogourovnevoy sistemy ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti [The system of indicators of economic security of a municipality as an integral element of a multilevel system of economic security]. Mir novoy ekonomiki [The World of New Economy]. Vol. 14. 2020. No. 4. P. 67-80. (in Russ.)
6. Gorbana A. N., Tyukina T. A., Pokidysheva L. I., Smirnova E. V. Dynamic and thermodynamic models of adaptation. Physics of Life Reviews. Vol. 37. July 2021. P. 17-64.
7. Pobyvaev S. A., Selivanov A. I., Troshin D. V. Problemy primeneniya metodologii porogovykh znacheniy dlya opredeleniya sostoyaniya sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh sistem [Questions of application of the methodology of threshold values for determining the state of socio-economic systems]. Mir novoy ekonomiki [The World of New Economy]. 2018. Vol. 12. No. 2. P. 90-97. (in Russ.)
8. Sakovich A. V. Kriticheskaya zona porogovykh znacheniy sotsial'nykh indikatorov ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti [Critical zone of the threshold values of social indicators of economic security]. Author's abstract of Cand. Diss. Moscow. 2013. (in Russ.)
9. Shevyakov A. Yu. Neravenstvo dokhodov kak faktor ekonomicheskoy i demograficheskoy dinamiki [Income Inequality as a Factor of Economic and Demographic Dynamics]. Moscow. 2010. P. 15. (in Russ.)
10. Rutkevich A. M. C. G. Yung o sovremennosti [Jung on modernity]. Filosofskiye nauki [Philosophical Sciences]. 1989. No. 8. P. 113. (in Russ.)
11. Dogan M. Legitimnost' rezhimov i krizis doveriya [Legitimacy of regimes and crisis of confidence]. Sotsiologicheskiye issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 1994. No. 6. P. 151. (in Russ.)
Article
Received: 30.07.2021
Accepted: 16.09.2021
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Lokosov, V. V. (2021). Assessment of socio-economic risks by method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators. Population, 24(3), 8-17. https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2021.24.3.1
Section
QUALITY, STANDARDS AND CONDITIONS OF LIFE
