«Cherished thoughts» of D. I. Mendeleev on population
Research Article
How to Cite
Belova T.N. «Cherished thoughts» of D. I. Mendeleev on population. Population. 2022. Vol. 25. No. 2. P. 77-91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2022.25.2.7 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The scientific legacy of the great Russian scientist D. I. Mendeleev in the field of Economics and sociology is concentrated in his last lifetime books — «Cherished Thoughts» and «Towards the Knowledge of Russia». In this article, the author draws readers» attention to Mendeleev's «law» on the age structure of population. Mendeleev formalized the relationship between the age and the number of a given age group of the population. He proved that the forecast values calculated by him are true on the example of the population censuses of Germany and the North American United States of the late 21st century. Mendeleev connects changes in the age structure of population with the value of the maximum age of survival. The author repeats Mendeleev's calculations using modern methods and information technologies and shows both the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. The author conducts a further study of the population distribution by age based on data from the population censuses of modern Russia and the United States. A dramatic change in the demographic situation a hundred years after the research of Mendeleev is illustrated by the author with graphs of the population distribution by age on the example of modern Russia and the United States. At the same time, the author comes to the conclusion that it is impossible to use Mendeleev's idea of a «sliding parabola» to build demographic forecasts for countries with a modern type of population reproduction. The reason for this is the demographic transition from a progressive to a regressive population structure. According to the author, the second inflection point on the» Mendeleev parabola», which is observed for developed countries, arose not so much due to a decrease in the birth rate, but due to government support measures. Nevertheless, Mendeleev's parabola can be used as a tool for demographic forecasts for countries and separate regions with a progressive population structure.
Keywords:
economic legacy of D. I. Mendeleev, age structure of population, population growth, population censuses, demographic transition
References
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17. Belova T. N. «Zavetnye mysli» D. I. Mendeleeva o vneshnej torgovle i «pravil'nom protektsionizme» [D. I. Mendeleev's «cherished thoughts» on foreign trade and «correct protectionism»]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic Issues]. 2020. No. 9. P. 120-139. (in Russ)
2. Mendeleev D. I. O pokrovitel'stvennoj sisteme. Pis'mo Nikolayu II. (iyun» 1897) [On the patronizing system. Letter to Nicholas II]. 1897. Available at: http://az.lib.ru/m/mendeleew_d_i/text_1897_o_ pokrovitelst (Accessed: 20 January 2022). (in Russ.)
3. Sorokin A. I. D. I. Mendeleev o problemah sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii na rubezhe XIX-XX vv. [D. I. Mendeleev on the problems of socio-economic development of Russia at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries]. Vestnik SPbGU [Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University]. 2010. No. 5(1). P. 92-101 Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/d-i-mendeleev-o-problemah-sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo-razvitiya-rossii-na-rubezhe-xix-xx-vv (Accessed: 20 January 2022). (in Russ.)
4. Belova T. N. Dmitry Mendeleev's forecasts of the population of Russia and the realities of its present development. Population and Economy. 2018. No. 2(3). P. 1-41.
5. Mendeleev D. I. K poznaniyu Rossii. S prilozheniem karty Rossii. 3-e izdanie, vnov» ispravlennoje i dopolnennoje [Towards the Knowledge of Russia. With the map of Russia app. 3rd edition, newly corrected and supplemented]. St. Petersburg. Izdanije A. S. Suvorina. [Publication by A. S. Suvorin]. 1906. 158 p. (in Russ)
6. Ozarovskaya O. E. Vospominaniya o D. I. Mendeleeve [Memories of D. I. Mendeleev]. Krasnaya niva [Red Field]. 1926. Available at: http://az.lib.ru/m/mendeleew_d_i/text_1926_vosp.shtml (Accessed: 20 January 2022). (in Russ.)
7. Naselenije Rossii za 100 let (1897-1997). [Population of Russia for 100 Years (1897-1997)]. Moscow. Goskomstat Rossii [Goskomstat of Russia]. 1998. Available at: http://az.lib.ru/m/mendeleew_d_i/text_1926_vosp.shtml (Accessed: 20 January 2022). (in Russ.)
8. Rimashevskaya N. M., Dobrokhleb V. G., Medvedeva E. I., Kroshilin S. V. Demograficheskij perekhod — spetsifika rossijskoj modeli [Demographic transition — specific character of the Russian model]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2012. No. 1(55). P. 23-31. (in Russ.)
9. Arkhangelsky V. N., Zinkina Yu. V, Korotaev A. V, Shulgin S. G. Sovremennyje tendentsii rozhdaemosti v Rossii i vliyanije mer gosudarstvennoj podderzhki [Current trends in the birth rate in Russia and the impact of state support measures]. Sotsis. [SociologicalStudies], 2017. No. 3. P. 43¬50. (in Russ.)
10. Gudkova T. B. Reproduktivnyje namereniya rossiyan: motivatsiya i sderzhivayushchije faktory. [Reproductive intentions of Russians: motivation and constraints]. Demograficheskoje obozrenije [Demographic Review]. 2019. No. 6(4). P. 83-103. (in Russ.)
11. Osipova I. Reproduktivnye ustanovki rossiyan i otnoshenije k gosudarstvennym meram podderzhki rozhdaemosti [Reproductive attitudes of Russians and attitudes towards government measures to support the birth rate]. Demograficheskoje obozrenije [Demographic Review]. 2020. No. 7(2). P. 91-120. (in Russ.)
12. Rybakovsky L. L. Demograficheskoje razvitije Rossii i ego dominanty v pervoj chetverti 21 veka [Demographic development of Russia and its dominants in the first quarter of the 21st century]. Narodonaselenie. [Population]. 2011. No. 3(53). P. 4-10. (in Russ.)
13. Simagin Yu. A. Rezul'taty issledovaniya demograficheskih problem Rossii v 21 veke [Results of the study of demographic problems in Russia in the 21st century]. Narodonaselenie. [Population]. 2021. Vol. 24. No. 4. P. 4-22. DOI: 10.19181/population.2021.24.4.1. (in Russ.)
14. Smelov P. A., Egorova E. A, Karmanov M. V. Statisticheskij analiz demograficheskoj bezopasnosti Rossijskoj Federatsii [Statistical analysis of demographic security of the Russian Federation]. Voprosy statistiki [Statistics Issues]. 2016. No. 10. P. 64-72. (in Russ)
15. Rimashevskaya N. M., Dobrokhleb V. G., Medvedeva E. I., Kroshilin S. V. Osobennosti razvitiya demograficheskih protsessov v sovremennoj Rossii [Features of the development of demographic processes in modern Russia]. Natsional'nyje interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost» [National Interests: Priorities and Security]. 2012. Vol. 8. No. 15(156). P. 2-11. (in Russ.)
16. Belova T. N. Chto svyazyvajet monetizatsiyu l'got i rozhdaemost» naseleniya? [What links the monetization of benefits and the birth rate of the population?]. Voprosy statistiki [Statistics Issues]. 2005. No. 6. P. 31-36. (in Russ.)
17. Belova T. N. «Zavetnye mysli» D. I. Mendeleeva o vneshnej torgovle i «pravil'nom protektsionizme» [D. I. Mendeleev's «cherished thoughts» on foreign trade and «correct protectionism»]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic Issues]. 2020. No. 9. P. 120-139. (in Russ)
Article
Received: 01.02.2022
Accepted: 08.06.2022
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Belova, T. N. (2022). «Cherished thoughts» of D. I. Mendeleev on population. Population, 25(2), 77-91. https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2022.25.2.7
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
