Гребневая модель для прогноза демографических показателей российской системы образования

doi:10.19181/population.2022.25.2.8

DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2022.25.2.8

Elena I. Medvedeva Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management of Moscow Healthcare Department, Moscow, Russia e_lenam@mail.ru ORCID ID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4200-1047
Elibrary Author_id 381176

ResearchID B-8964-2018
Sergey V. Kroshilin Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management of Moscow Healthcare Department, Moscow, Russia; Ryazan State Medical University, Ryazan, Russia krosh_sergey@mail.ru ORCID ID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6070-1234
Elibrary Author_id 664581

ResearchID J-2184-2018

How to Cite

Medvedeva E.I., Kroshilin S.V. Ridge model for predicting demographic indicators of the Russian education system. Population. 2022. Vol. 25. No. 2. P. 92-103. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2022.25.2.8 (in Russ.).

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to use the author's Comb model to study the dynamics of demographic indicators on which the effectiveness and "uniform" workload of all levels of the Russian education system depends. The object of the study are the age cohorts of the Russian population, the subject is the optimal workload of the levels of the education system with the account of new challenges, including those caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Development of modern Russian society, socio-economic projects and well-being of the population are largely determined by demographic indicators, such as fertility, life expectancy, mortality, the number of able-bodied population, etc. At present demographic problems, as well as ten years ago, are caused primarily by the change in the age structure of the population. In 2012, a research team headed by RAS Academician N. M. Rimashevskaya developed and applied the "Ridge model of the age structure of children and youth", which, using econometric forecasting approaches, makes it possible to forecast demographic dynamics in the education system. Based on the simulation results, with a certain probability, it is possible to predict the number of required places at various levels of training. Today, the President of the Russian Federation, the Government and the leading regional authorities of the country pay great attention to this problem. In the country, in parallel with other significant National projects, the Demography project has been implemented since 2019, one of the tasks of which (target indicator) is to increase the total fertility rate (up to 1.7). This once again underlines the relevance of the chosen topic and the author's tools (Comb model). The article uses data from the Federal Statistics Service, analytical materials of demographers, results of studies, including the author's, conducted using software for calculating the Ridge model in various regions. The cohort age structure of children and youth was projected using the author's tools for various levels of the education system in the Russian Federation, Moscow city, Moscow, Ryazan, Vladimir, Tula and Vologda oblasts. The results of the conducted research may be relevant and practically significant for the government structures that are directly involved in settling the issues related to regional and national demographic indicators. The material can be used for theoretical study of demography issues by students in professional educational institutions of middle and senior management, as well as demographers, analysts and other specialists dealing with demography issues.

Keywords:

socio-economic problems, age structure, demographic processes, education system, cohort analysis, econometric modeling

Author Biographies

Elena I. Medvedeva, Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management of Moscow Healthcare Department, Moscow, Russia

Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Leading Researcher, Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Researcher, Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management of Moscow Healthcare Department

Sergey V. Kroshilin, Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management of Moscow Healthcare Department, Moscow, Russia; Ryazan State Medical University, Ryazan, Russia

Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor, Senior Researcher, Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Researcher, Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management of Moscow Healthcare Department, Moscow, Russia; Assistant Professor, Ryazan State Medical University

References

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Ridge model for predicting demographic indicators of the Russian education system

Research Article

Abstract

Author Biographies

References