Factors affecting the decision about having a child and the number of children by women in Russia
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The work was carried out according to the research plan of the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch RAS, project 5.6.6.4. (0260-2021-0008) «Methods and models for substantiating the strategy for development of the Russian economy in the context of a changing macroeconomic reality».
How to Cite
Filimonova I.V., Ivershin A.V., Komarova A.V., Krivosheeva O.I. Factors affecting the decision about having a child and the number of children by women in Russia. Population. 2023. Vol. 26. No. 1. P. 55-69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.5 (in Russ.).
Abstract
Birth rate has a special place among the demographic factors determining the growth of population and the pace of the country's economic development. Solution to the problem of proper fertility in Russia is in building a powerful state demographic policy based on strengthening the key determinants of the reproductive process. The work is devoted to identifying the determinants of making a decision about the birth of a child in Russian families, understanding of which will allow substantiating the ways to improve the effectiveness of the demographic policy to stimulate the birth rate. To study fertility factors, two econometric models were built: a logistic regression for dependent variable of having a child during the year and an ordinal logistic regression for the number of children. The models took into account the problem of endogeneity — there was used instrumental variables method. The main data source was the RLMS HSE statistical database. The primary analysis of the data showed that in Russia the transition to European family type continues: there is an increase in the age at which women have children, and extramarital unions are spreading. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found out that the probability of having a child during the year is influenced primarily by personal and socio-economic factors, as well as working conditions. The number of children a woman has is affected by all types of factors, in particular— socio-economic factors and working conditions. Families that are not sure of their future financial stability, including their living conditions, are less likely to have a large number of children. The paper gives recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of the state demographic policy in Russia.
Keywords:
fertility, fertility factors, demographic policy, reproductive behavior
References
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2. Sobotka T. What's special about Russia's fertility and reproduction? A comparative European perspective. Demographic Trends in Russia. Moscow. Higher School of Economics, 2019. Available at: https://demogr.hse.ru/data/2019/12/10/1523705288/Sobotka_Fertility%20reproduction%20Russia%20and%20Europe_Nov2019.pdf (Accessed: 1 October 2022).
3. Arkhangelsky V. N. Faktory rozhdaemosti. [Fertility Factors]. Moscow. TEIS. 2006. 399 p. (in Russ.)
4. Lindh T., Malmberg B. Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-90: Further evidence. Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 12. P. 431-449. DOI: 10.1007/s001480050107
5. Beaudry P., Green D. Population growth, technological adoption and economic outcomes in the information era. Mimeo NBER. Review of Economic Dynamics. 2000. Vol. 5. No. 4. P. 749-774. DOI: 10.3386/w8149
6. Cairo I., Cajner T. Human capital and unemployment dynamics: Why more educated workers enjoy greater employment stability. FEDS Working Paper. 2014. No. 2014-9. P. 652-682. DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12441
7. Bernanke B. S. The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit. Remarks at the Sandridge Lecture. Virginia Association of Economists. Richmond. Virginia. 2005. P. 385-666.
8. Boserup E. Women's Role in Economic Development. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 1972. P. 283. DOI: 10.1086/450619
9. Lucas R. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics. 1988. Vol. 22. P. 3-42. DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
10. Blanchet D. Demographic trends and pensions: fifteen years of debate. Population and Societies. 2002. No. 383. P. 1-5.
11. Barro R., Becker G. Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica. 1989. Vol. 57. P. 481-501. DOI: 10.2307/1912563
12. Cyplakov A. A. Ekskurs v mir instrumental'nyh peremennyh. [A guide to the world of instrumental variables]. Kvantil' [Quantile]. 2007. No. 2. P. 21-47. (in Russ.)
13. Maleva T. M., Sinyavskaya O. V. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskiye faktory rozhdaemosti v Rossii: empiricheskiye izmereniya i vyzovy sotsial'noj politike [Socioeconomic factors in fertility in modern Russia: the empirical measurement and social challenges politics]. SPERO. 2006. No. 5. P. 70-97. (in Russ.)
14. Pau B. Linking social class inequalities, labor market status, and fertility: An empirical investigation of second births. Advances in Life Course Research. 2020. Vol. 46. P. 306-338. DOI: 10.1016/j. alcr.2020.100377
15. Naohiro O., Matsukur R., Lee S. — H. Women's changing work arrangements, career paths, and marital fertility in Japan. Advances in Life Course Research. 2020. Vol. 46. P. 82-93. DOI: 10.1016/j.alcr.2020.100375
16. Martin-Garcia T., Baizan P. The Impact of Type of Education and of Educational Enrolment on First Births. European Sociological Review. 2006. No. 22. P. 259-275. DOI: 10.1093/esr/jci056
17. Tudor S. Financial incentives, fertility and early life child outcomes. Labour Economics. 2020. Vol. 64. P. 58-66. DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101839
18. Begall K., Mills M. C. The Influence of Educational Field, Occupation, and Occupational Sex Segregation on Fertility in the Netherlands. European Sociological Review. 2013. No. 29. P. 720-742. DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcs051
19. Hazan M., Zoabi H. Do highly educated women choose smaller families? CEPR Discussion Paper. 2011. No. DP8590. P. 1-43. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1932835
20. Zhuravleva T. L. Gavrilova Ya. A. Analiz faktorov rozhdaemosti v Rossii: chto govoryat dannye RMEZ NIU VShE [Analysis of fertility determinants in Russia: what do RLMS data say?]. Ekonomicheskij zhurnal VShE [Higher Scholl of Economics Economic Journal]. 2017. Vol. 21. No. 1. P. 145-187. (in Russ.)
21. Liu J., Xing C., Zhang O. House price, fertility rates and reproductive intentions. China Economic Review. 2020. No. 62. — P. 77-89. DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101496
22. Gorelkina O. G. Mikroanaliz rozhdaemosti v Rossii: rol' neekonomicheskih faktorov [Microanalysis of fertility in Russia: the role of non-economic considerations]. Prikladnaja ekonometrika [Applied Econometrics]. 2007. No. 1. P. 58-74. (in Russ.)
23. Gonzalez L. The Effect of a universal child benefit on conceptions, abortions, and early maternal labor supply. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. 2013. Vol. 50. No. 3. P. 160-188. DOI: 10.1257/pol.5.3.160
24. Andryushina E. V., Panova E. Gosudarstvennaya politika po stimulirovaniyu rozhdaemosti i podderzhki semej s det'mi: praktika sovremennoj Rossii [Government policy on fertility stimulation and support of families with children: the practice of modern Russia]. Vlast' [The Authority]. 2019. Vol. 27. No. 5. P. 105-111. (in Russ.)
Article
Received: 03.10.2022
Accepted: 16.03.2023
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Filimonova, I. V., Ivershin, A. V., Komarova, A. V., & Krivosheeva, O. I. (2023). Factors affecting the decision about having a child and the number of children by women in Russia. Population, 26(1), 55-69. https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.5
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
