Demographic factor in the economic development of the regions of the Siberian Federal District in 2005–2022
Research Article
How to Cite
Pastukhova E.Y., Logunov T.A. Demographic factor in the economic development of the regions of the Siberian Federal District in 2005–2022. Population. 2024. Vol. 27. No. 1. P. 109-122. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-1-109-122 (in Russ.).
Abstract
Dynamics of important demographic and economic processes in the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) is developing according to a more unfavorable scenario compared to the all-Russian trends. Most of the SFD territories are characterized by a long-term natural population decline, decrease in the number and proportion of working-age population and rising demographic burden. Increase of the demographic burden in the industrial regions of the SFD is due to the number of people over working age, while in the national republics of South Siberia, it is due to larger numbers of children and adolescents. High mortality rate of the SFD population has a negative impact on life expectancy, especially for men. An important role in the dynamics of the processes under study belongs to the natural resource and industrial character of the development of Krasnoyarsk Krai, Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Omsk, Tomsk oblasts and the Republic of Khakassia. A significant part of the Siberian population lives in unfavorable environmental conditions, they have lower living standards and higher poverty rates as compared to the national average. The authors used correlation and regression analyses to reveal a significant and moderate correlation between demographic factors and economic development of the SFD regions. Employment showed a negative correlation with the increase in demographic burden and mortality from external factors. Life expectancy has a positive correlation with population employment and gross regional product (GRP) level. Demographic burden, mortality caused by external factors, and life expectancy proved to be more significant for population employment rate, and moderately or weakly relevant for average per capita GRP. The authors propose a typology of the SFD regions based on their level of economic development and specifics of the demographic situation. The typology includes three types: first, the most problematic and less developed regions; second, less problematic ones; and third, the regions whose development indicators are close to the Russian average. The suggested typology is practically relevant as it can be used in adjusting the objectives of demographic and economic development of the regions in the Siberian Federal District.
Keywords:
natural population decline, age structure, ageing of the population, mortality, life expectancy, employment rate, GRP
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5. Pastukhova E. Ya., Mukhachyova A. V., Kochneva O. P. Uroven’, dinamika, faktory absolyutnoy i otnositel’noy bednosti: regional’nyy aspect [Rates, dynamics, and factors of absolute and relative poverty: regional aspect]. Voprosy upravleniya [Management Issues]. 2021. No. 3. P. 80–92. DOI: 10.22394/2304–3369–2021–3–80–92 (in Russ.)
6. Churanova A. N., Gorchakova T. Yu. Smertnost’ naseleniya trudosposobnogo vozrasta v promyshlennykh regionakh Sibiri [The mortality rate of the working age population in the industrial regions of Siberia]. Meditsina truda i promyshlennaya ekologiya [Russian Journal of Occupational Health and Industrial Ecology]. 2020. Vol. 60. No. 11. P. 888–891. DOI: 10.31089/1026–9428–2020–60–11–888–891 (in Russ.)
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11. Soboleva S. V., Smirnova N. E., Chudayeva О. V. Izmeneniya chislennosti i polovozrastnoy struktury naseleniya Sibirskogo federal’nogo okruga i yego regionov v 1989–2017 gg.: otsenka posledstviy i riski [Changes in the size and sex-age structure of the population in the Siberian federal district and its regions from 1989 to 2017: impact assessment and risks]. Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya [Region: Economics and Sociology]. 2019. No. 2 (102). P. 151–184. DOI: 10.15372/REG20190207 (in Russ.)
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15. Bedanokov M. K., Morgunov E. V., Chernyavsky S. V. Vzaimovliyaniye ozhidayemoy prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni i VVP v stranakh mira [The interaction between life expectancy and gross domestic product by countries]. Narodonaselenie [Population]. 2022. Vol. 25. No. 4. Р. 4–15. DOI: 10.19181/population.2021.24.3.1 (in Russ.)
Article
Received: 01.09.2023
Accepted: 27.03.2024
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Pastukhova, E. Y., & Logunov, T. A. (2024). Demographic factor in the economic development of the regions of the Siberian Federal District in 2005–2022. Population, 27(1), 109-122. https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-1-109-122
Section
DEMOGRAPHY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
