Features of social forecasting in terms of social uncertainty in modern Russian society
Research Article
How to Cite
Samygin P.S., Samygin S.I., Maximovich A.V. Features of social forecasting in terms of social uncertainty in modern Russian society. Humanities of the South of Russia. 2025. Vol. 14. No. 3. P. 182-195. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18522/2227-8656.2025.3.15 (in Russ.).
Abstract
Objective of the study is to consider the essence and significance of social forecasting as a specific scientific activity in terms of progressive social uncertainty in the development of modern Russian society.
Methodological basis of the study includes theoretical provisions formulated by prominent representatives of domestic and foreign sociological science, which reveal the specific characteristics of social forecasting, its essence and significance as a specially organized scientific study of the prospects for the development of social phenomena and processes.
Results of the study. The study reveales that social forecasting as a specific scientific activity, based on the ambiguity and multivariability of changes in social systems and the possibility of probabilistic statements about their future with a relatively high degree of reliability, is particularly important in terms of progressive uncertainty and unpredictability of the development of modern Russian society. The role of social forecasting is determined by the fact that it is aimed at developing scientifically sound ideas about the risks arising within the framework of Russia's socio-economic development, challenges and threats to the country's national security. Predictive scenarios are of key importance, which are an attempt to determine the prospects for the socio-economic development of a society, the main vector of its transformation, the factors influencing this development, etc. Social forecasting is based on various scientific methods that make it possible to identify the main patterns of development in various spheres of public life, to model optimal options for the future development of society, and to form promising ways and means for making effective decisions.
Prospects of the study. The presented results have scientific significance for further study of social forecasting and can be used in the implementation of predictive activities aimed at determining the prospects for socio-economic development of modern Russia, vectors for transformation of society in the long term, and factors influencing social development.
Keywords:
society, forecasting, social forecast, social forecasting, social planning, forecast scenario, social uncertainty, social risk, risk society, social behavior, social process, transitive society
References
Kaznacheeva I. A. Social forecasting in the context of the transformation of Russian society (Comprehensive sociological analysis): specialty 22.00.04 "Social structure, social institutions and processes": dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Sociological Sciences. Stavropol, 2005; 270 p. (In Russ.)
Maksimovich A. V. Forecasting social behavior in crisis conditions of Russian society: possibilities of methodological design. Gosudarstvennoye i munitsipal'noye upravleniye. Uchenyye zapiski = State and municipal administration. Scientific notes. 2024; 2: 302-306. DOI 10.22394/2079-1690-2024-1-2-302-306. (In Russ.)
Self-regulation and forecasting of social behavior of the individual: Dispositional concept. 2nd expanded ed. Moskva: TSSPiM = Moscow: Center for Social Forecasting and Marketing, 2013; 376 p. ISBN 978-5-906001-04-7. (In Russ.)
Toshchenko Zh. T. Sociology of management. Moskva: Tsentr sotsial'nogo prognozirov aniya i marketinga = Moscow: Center for Social Forecasting and Marketing, 2011; 300 p. ISBN 978-598201-041-4. (In Russ.)
Bestuzhev-Lada I. V., Namestnikova G. A. Social forecasting: course of lectures. Humanitarian and Forecasting Academy, Training Center. Moskva: Pedagogicheskoye obshchestvo Rossii = Moscow: Pedagogical Society of Russia, 2001; 386 p. ISBN 5-93134-152-8. (In Russ.)
Naumova N. F. Recurrent modernization in Russia: a disaster, a fault, or a resource for humanity? Edited by V. N. Sadovsky and V. A. Yadov; Russian Academy of Sciences. Institute for Systems Analysis. Moskva: Editorial URSS = Moscow: Editorial URSS, 1999; 174 p. ISBN 5-8360-0017-4. (In Russ.)
Garshin N. A. Deformation of tolerance in the context of a "risk society": Specialty 09.00.11 – social philosophy, abstract of a dissertation for the degree of candidate of philosophical sciences. Voronezh, 2021; 22 p. (In Russ.)
Fedorova M. Yu., Istomina E. A. Social risk management: legal analysis. Voprosy upravleniya = Management issues. 2014; 5 (30): 206-214. (In Russ.)
Yagudin S. Yu., Sagieva G. S., Bebris A. O., Edkina L. V., Fayzulloev M. K. Innovations and venture investment: trends and practice: monograph. Edited by S. Yu. Yagudin. Moskva: Moskovskiy pechatnik = Moscow: Moskovsky Pechatnik, 2010; 148 p. ISBN 978-5-374-00241-6. (In Russ.)
Nikitskaya E. F. Forecasting innovative development: international trends and Russian experience. Internet-zhurnal Naukovedeniye = Internet journal Naukovedenie. 2014; 3(22): 51. (In Russ.)
Maksimovich A. V. Forecasting social behavior in crisis conditions of Russian society: possibilities of methodological design. Gosudarstvennoye i munitsipal'noye upravleniye. Uchenyye zapiski = State and municipal administration. Scientific notes. 2024; 2: 302-306. DOI 10.22394/2079-1690-2024-1-2-302-306. (In Russ.)
Self-regulation and forecasting of social behavior of the individual: Dispositional concept. 2nd expanded ed. Moskva: TSSPiM = Moscow: Center for Social Forecasting and Marketing, 2013; 376 p. ISBN 978-5-906001-04-7. (In Russ.)
Toshchenko Zh. T. Sociology of management. Moskva: Tsentr sotsial'nogo prognozirov aniya i marketinga = Moscow: Center for Social Forecasting and Marketing, 2011; 300 p. ISBN 978-598201-041-4. (In Russ.)
Bestuzhev-Lada I. V., Namestnikova G. A. Social forecasting: course of lectures. Humanitarian and Forecasting Academy, Training Center. Moskva: Pedagogicheskoye obshchestvo Rossii = Moscow: Pedagogical Society of Russia, 2001; 386 p. ISBN 5-93134-152-8. (In Russ.)
Naumova N. F. Recurrent modernization in Russia: a disaster, a fault, or a resource for humanity? Edited by V. N. Sadovsky and V. A. Yadov; Russian Academy of Sciences. Institute for Systems Analysis. Moskva: Editorial URSS = Moscow: Editorial URSS, 1999; 174 p. ISBN 5-8360-0017-4. (In Russ.)
Garshin N. A. Deformation of tolerance in the context of a "risk society": Specialty 09.00.11 – social philosophy, abstract of a dissertation for the degree of candidate of philosophical sciences. Voronezh, 2021; 22 p. (In Russ.)
Fedorova M. Yu., Istomina E. A. Social risk management: legal analysis. Voprosy upravleniya = Management issues. 2014; 5 (30): 206-214. (In Russ.)
Yagudin S. Yu., Sagieva G. S., Bebris A. O., Edkina L. V., Fayzulloev M. K. Innovations and venture investment: trends and practice: monograph. Edited by S. Yu. Yagudin. Moskva: Moskovskiy pechatnik = Moscow: Moskovsky Pechatnik, 2010; 148 p. ISBN 978-5-374-00241-6. (In Russ.)
Nikitskaya E. F. Forecasting innovative development: international trends and Russian experience. Internet-zhurnal Naukovedeniye = Internet journal Naukovedenie. 2014; 3(22): 51. (In Russ.)
Article
Received: 25.03.2025
Accepted: 19.06.2025
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Samygin, P. S., Samygin, S. I., & Maximovich, A. V. (2025). Features of social forecasting in terms of social uncertainty in modern Russian society. Humanities of the South of Russia, 14(3), 182-195. https://doi.org/10.18522/2227-8656.2025.3.15
Section
SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN MODERN SOCIETY
