Ethnopolitical Tensions and Assessment of the Possibility of Ethnic-National Conflicts
Acknowledgments
The study was supported by the RFBR. Project № 19-011-00380
How to Cite
Naydenko V.N. 2019. Ethnopolitical Tensions and Assessment of the Possibility of Ethnic-National Conflicts — Sociologicheskaja nauka i social’naja praktika. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 22-39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2019.7.3.6687
Abstract
The article examines the problems of open and latent ethnonational tension in Russian society, which in the conditions of aggravation of the social situation, may lead to the use of spontaneous methods of solving ethnonational conflicts, including those of a violent nature.A survey of 20 experts, who are qualified specialists in the sphere of ethno-extremism counteraction and ethno-national conflict localization, conducted by the author of the article, has shown that the majority of them have assessed both the current and forecasted situation in the sphere of ethnonational relations as “tense” for the next five to seven years.In their opinion, “ethnonational tension” is conditioned by a number of long-term factors that will influence the content and dynamics of ethnonational conflict in the Russian Federation: the desire of the USA for global dominance and the confrontational policy of NATO member states towards Russia; the antiRussian policy of the Ukrainian leadership, which is attempting to accuse Russia of “unleashing and waging a hybrid war against Ukraine” and actively pushing Western countries to strengthen confrontation with the Russian Federation; attempts by some states to bring territorial claims against Russia; intensification of the fight against embezzlement of budgetary funds, systemic corruption and ethno-extremist manifestations in the North Caucasus region; the ethnopolitical situation in the Republic of Crimea, characterized by manifestations of Ukrainian nationalism and militant Islamism. According to expert estimates, the highest degree of ethnonational tension is currently maintained in the Republic of Dagestan, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Karachayevo-Circassian Republic, the Republic of Crimea, the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Republic of Tatarstan.The results of research in the article testify to the necessity of constant study of the problem of ethnonational conflicts, research into the factors influencing the maintenance and dynamics of conflict potential, definition of Russian regions with an increased level of tension, development of recommendations to authorities on prevention and localization of ethnonational conflicts.
Keywords:
ethno-national conflicts, the level of ethno-national tension, factors of ethno-national conflict, regions with an increased level of ethno-national tension
References
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Situatsiya vyhodit iz-pod kontrolya: KCHR vnov’ upala v reytinge sotsial’no-politicheskoy ustoychivosti. [The situation is out of control: the KCR again fell in the rating of socio-political stability]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. NR region online: [veb-sayt]. 11 iyunya 2018. URL: https://news-r.ru/ news/karachay_cherkess_republic/224126/ (data obrascheniya: 28.05.2019). (In Russ.).
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V Karachaevo-Cherkesii i Moskve zaderzhany 12 chlenov ekstremistskoy yacheyki. [In KarachayCherkessia and Moscow detained 12 members of the extremist cell]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. TASS: [veb-sayt]. 21 iyunya 2019. URL: https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/6576714?utm_source=yxnews&utm_ medium=desktop (data obrascheniya: 21.06.2019). (In Russ.).
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Diveeva Yu. Bol’shinstvo amerikantsev schitayut Rossiyu glavnoy ugrozoy dlya SSHA. [Most Americans consider Russia the main threat to the United States]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. Komsomol’skaya pravda: [veb-sayt]. Elektron. dan. 28 fevralya 2019. URL: https://www.kp.ru/online/news/3400785/ (data obrascheniya: 25.05.2019). (In Russ.).
FSB razoblachila gruppu islamistov v Karachaevo-Cherkesii. [FSB exposed a group of Islamists in Karachay-Cherkessia]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. Moskva 24: [veb-sayt]. 21 iyunya 2019. URL: https:// www.m24.ru/news/proisshestviya/21062019/80430?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop (data obrascheniya: 21.06.2019). (In Russ.).
FSB Rossii zaderzhala 12 ekstremistov v Karachaevo-Cherkesii i Moskve. [Russia’s FSB detained 12 extremists in Karachay-Cherkessia and Moscow]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. RT: [veb-sayt]. 21 iyunya 2019. URL: https://russian.rt.com/russia/news/643150-fsb-rossiya-ekstremisty?utm_ source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop (data obrascheniya: 21.06.2019). (In Russ.).
Grigoryan D. K., Aroyan A. S., Verenich I. G. Mezhetnicheskie konflikty: tipy, soderzhanie i puti preodoleniya. [Interethnic conflicts: types, contents and ways of overcoming]. Filosofiya prava. 2018. № 3(86). P. 123–127. (In Russ.).
Dvadtsat’ pyat’ let sotsial’nyh transformatsiy v otsenkah i suzhdeniyah rossiyan: opyt sotsiologicheskogo analiza. [Twenty-five years of social transformations in the assessments and judgments of Russians: the experience of sociological analysis]. Ed. by M. K. Gorshkov, V. V. Petuhov. M.: Ves’ Mir publ., 2018. 384 p. (In Russ.).
Drobizheva L. M. Etnopoliticheskie konflikty. Prichiny i tipologiya (konets 80-h–nachalo 90-h gg.). [Ethno-political conflicts. Causes and typology (late 80’s-early 90’s)]. Rossiya segodnya: trudnye poiski svobody. Ed. by L. F. Shevtsova. M.: IEA RAN publ., 1993. P. 227–236. (In Russ.).
Kalyukov E. MID otvetil na zayavleniya Estonii ob okkupatsii Rossiey chasti territorii. [The foreign Ministry responded to Estonia’s statements about Russia’s occupation of part of the territory]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. RBK: [veb-sayt]. 15 maya 2019. URL: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/15/05/2019/ 5cdc404e9a7947298ac8c566 (data obrascheniya: 25.05.2019). (In Russ.).
Karachaevo-Cherkesiya: ostrovok spokoystviya s nizkim urovnem zhizni i konfliktami elit. [KarachayCherkessia: an island of calm with a low standard of living and conflicts of elites]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. On TV: [veb-sayt]. 27.04.2016. URL: https://ontv.su/news/935-karachaevo-cherkesija-ostrovok-spokoistvijas-nizkim-urovnem-zhizni-i-konfliktami-elit.html (data obrascheniya: 28.05.2019). (In Russ.).
Mezhnatsional’nyy konflikt v Karachaevo-CHerkessii: cherkesy i abaziny prosyat Putina vyvesti ih iz sostava respubliki. [Interethnic conflict in Karachay-Cherkessia: Circassians and Abaza ask Putin to withdraw them from the Republic]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. Stolica-s.su: [veb-sayt]. 21 noyabrya 2018. URL: https://stolica-s.su/news/166992 (data obrascheniya: 25.05.2019). (In Russ.).
Monitoring elektoral’nyh nastroeniy ukraintsev (29 maya – 3 iyunya 2019 goda). [Monitoring of electoral sentiments of Ukrainians (May 29 – June 3, 2019)]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. Reyting: [veb-sayt]. 05.06.2019. URL: http://ratinggroup.ua/ru/research/ukraine/monitoring_elektoralnyh_nastroeniy_ ukraincev_29_maya_3_iyunya_2019_goda.html?fbclid=IwAR2LyZv2SgHO2FMnkJvoffYfw0_9TjouZ_3IAJY0x0uKfc8kegQxG78J2c (data obrascheniya: 08.06.2019). (In Russ.).
Mutalibova D. Vladimir Vasil’ev vystupil na V Mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii bor’by s terrorizmom v Dagestane. [Vladimir Vasiliev spoke at the V International conference against terrorism in Dagestan]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. MIRMOL.RU: [veb-sayt]. 04.10.2018. URL: http://mirmol.ru/obshhestvo/ vladimir-vasilev-vystupil-na-v-mezhdunarodnoj-konferencii-borby-s-terrorizmom-v-dagestane/ (data obrascheniya: 22.10.2018). (In Russ.).
Naydenko V. N. Ugrozy bezopasnosti Rossii v sfere etnonatsional’nyh otnosheniy. [Threats to Russia’s security in the sphere of ethno-national relations]. Sotsiologicheskaya nauka i sotsial’naya praktika. 2018. T. 6. № 3 (23). P. 131–151. (In Russ.).
Petrenko S. Aleksandr Bastrykin provel operativnoe soveschanie v Mahachkale. [Alexander Bastrykin held an operational meeting in Makhachkala]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. Sledstvennoe upravlenie Sledstvennogo komiteta Rossiyskoy Federatsii po Respublike Dagestan: [veb-sayt]. 05 sentyabrya 2018. URL: http://dagestan.sledcom.ru/news/item/1253326 (data obrascheniya: 20.10.2018). (In Russ.).
Petukhov V. V. Dinamika sotsial’nyh nastroeniy rossiyan i formirovanie zaprosa na peremeny. [The dynamics of social attitudes of Russians and the formation of a request for change]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya. 2018. № 11. P. 40–53. (In Russ.).
Rossiyskoe obschestvo v 2017-m: sotsial’noe samochuvstvie, trevogi, nadezhdy na buduschee. Informatsionno-analiticheskoe rezyume po itogam obscherossiyskogo sotsiologicheskogo issledovaniya. [Russian society in 2017: social well-being, anxieties, hopes for the future]. M.: FNISTS RAN, 2017. 82 p. (In Russ.).
Rossiyskoe obschestvo i vyzovy vremeni. Kniga pervaya. [Russian society and challenges of the time. Book one. Ed. by M. K. Gorshkov, V. V. Petuhov. M.: Ves’ Mir publ., 2015. 336 p. (In Russ.).
Situatsiya vyhodit iz-pod kontrolya: KCHR vnov’ upala v reytinge sotsial’no-politicheskoy ustoychivosti. [The situation is out of control: the KCR again fell in the rating of socio-political stability]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. NR region online: [veb-sayt]. 11 iyunya 2018. URL: https://news-r.ru/ news/karachay_cherkess_republic/224126/ (data obrascheniya: 28.05.2019). (In Russ.).
Shimaev R., Lushnikova A. «Pytayutsya sozdat’ konflikt»: pochemu v Estonii zayavili o territorial’nyh pretenziyah k Rossii. [“Trying to create a conflict”: why Estonia declared territorial claims to Russia]. RT: [veb-sayt]. 9 maya 2019. URL: https://russian.rt.com/ussr/article/629562estoniya-rf-territorialnyi-vopros-sssr (data obrascheniya: 25.05.2019). (In Russ.).
V Karachaevo-Cherkesii i Moskve zaderzhany 12 chlenov ekstremistskoy yacheyki. [In KarachayCherkessia and Moscow detained 12 members of the extremist cell]. [Elektronnyy resurs]. TASS: [veb-sayt]. 21 iyunya 2019. URL: https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/6576714?utm_source=yxnews&utm_ medium=desktop (data obrascheniya: 21.06.2019). (In Russ.).
Saad L. Majority of Americans Now Consider Russia a Critical Threat [Electronic resource]. GALLUP: [veb-sayt]. 27 fevralya 2019. URL: https://news.gallup.com/poll/247100/majorityamericans-consider-russia-critical-threat.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=TOPIC&g_ campaign=item_&g_content=Majority%20of%20Americans%20Now%20Consider%20Russia%20 a%20Critical%20Threat (data obrascheniya: 25.05.2019).
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
Harvard
Naydenko, V. N. (2019) ’Ethnopolitical Tensions and Assessment of the Possibility of Ethnic-National Conflicts’, Sociologicheskaja nauka i social’naja praktika, 7(3), pp. 22-39. doi: https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2019.7.3.6687.
Section
ETHNOSOCIOLOGY
Publisher: Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (FCTAS RAS)