Identifying, Evaluating, and Adapting to Risks in an Atmosphere of Uncertainty
How to Cite
Mozgovaya A.V. 2019. Identifying, Evaluating, and Adapting to Risks in an Atmosphere of Uncertainty — Sociologicheskaja nauka i social’naja praktika. Vol. 7. No. 4. P. 151-165. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2019.7.4.6808
Abstract
This paper belongs to the relevant field of empirical risk research in sociology and studies personal risk identification and evaluation in an atmosphere of uncertainty. While empirical data regarding risk perception is quite sufficient, studies have found no sound methodological foundation for reviewing and interpreting risk identification and evaluation, as well as ways in which people adapt to risks throughout their lives. Therefore, we propose a multi-paradigm concept of the system that individuals use to navigate their lives. This concept can be used as an underlining methodology for studying the specific features of identifying, evaluating, and adapting to risks in an atmosphere of uncertainty. We believe that, within the sociological paradigm, the nature of the adaptive process of “navigating uncertainty” lies in structuring it both on the personal and on the institutional level.The analysis of data collected during several regional studies and one national study provides empirical justification of the vital impact that subjective expectations and preferences have on decisionmaking in an atmosphere of uncertainty where the result of such decision-making is not clearly predictable. By evaluating the tolerance of various threat types, we can draw justified conclusions regarding the subjective importance/value of the respective entities. Our study shows that there is a solid cluster of the most vital values, threats to which are least permissible. Such values may be described as “irreplaceable” and “inalienable”; while the less vital values (but threats to which are still considered impermissible) are described as “replaceable” and “alienable”.The results of analyzing the links between the subjective damage perception, along with other elements of the individual’s life navigation system, on the one hand, and the choice of specific strategy to give the uncertain environment some structure (adaptation strategy) will be presented in the next paper.
Keywords:
risk identification, evaluating of risk, adaptation to uncertainty, safe-significance, system of life orientation
References
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Asmolov A. G. Psihologija sovremennosti: vyzovy neopredelennosti, slozhnosti i raznoobrazija. [Psychology of modernity: challenges of uncertainty, complexity and diversity]. Psihologicheskie issledovanija. 2015. T. 8. № 40. URL: http://psystudy.ru/index.php/num/2015v8n40/1109-asmolov40. html (data obraschenija: 8.04.2019). (In Russ.).
Asmolov A. G. Ustanovochnye effekty kak predvidenie buduschego: istoriko-evolyutsionnyj analiz. [Setting effects as foresight of the future: historical and evolutionary analysis]. Rossijskij zhurnal kognitivnoj nauki. 2017. Vol. 4. № 1. P. 26–32. (In Russ.).
Batygin G. S. Obosnovanie nauchnogo vyvoda v prikladnoj sotsiologii. [Justification of scientific conclusion in applied sociology]. M.: Nauka publ., 1986. 272 p. (In Russ.).
Burd’e P. Prakticheskij smysl. [Practical sense]. Ed. by N. A. Shmatko. SPb.: Aletejja publ., 2001. 562 p. (In Russ.).
Dinamika cennostej naselenija reformiruemoj Rossii. [Dynamics of values of the population of reformed Russia]. Ed. by N. I. Lapin, L. A. Beljaeva. M.: Editorial URSS publ., 1996. 224 p. (In Russ.).
Gofman I. Analiz frejmov: jesse ob organizacii povsednevnogo opyta. [Frame analysis: an essay on the organization of everyday experience]. Ed. by G. S. Batygin, L. A. Kozlova. M.: Institut sociologii RAN; Fond «Obshhestvennoe mnenie» publ., 2004. 752 p. (In Russ.).
Golovaha E. I. Zhiznennaja perspektiva i cennostnye orientacii lichnosti. [Life perspective and value orientations of personality]. Psihologija lichnosti v trudah otechestvennyh psihologov. SPb., 2009. Р. 262–276. (In Russ.).
Gorshkov M. K., Sheregi F. E. Prikladnaja sociologija: metodologija i metody: Uchebnoe posobie. [Applied sociology: methodology and methods: textbook]. M.: Al’fa-M: INFRA-M publ., 2009. 416 p. (In Russ.).
Jadov V. A. O dispozicionnoj reguljacii social’nogo povedenija lichnosti. [About dispositional regulation of social behavior of the person]. Metodologicheskie problemy sotsial’noj psihologii. M.: Nauka publ., 1975. P. 89–105. (In Russ.).
Jadov V. A. Sovremennaja teoreticheskaja sotsiologija kak konceptual’naja baza issledovanija rossijskih transformatsij: Kurs lektsij dlja studentov magistratury po sotsiologii. [Modern theoretical sociology as a conceptual basis for the study of Russian transformations: a course of lectures for graduate students in sociology]. SPb.: Intersocis publ., 2009. 138 p. (In Russ.).
Kaneman D., Tverski A. Racional’nyj vybor, cennosti i frejmy. [Rational choices, values and frames]. Psihologicheskij zhurnal. 2003. Vol. 24. № 4. P. 31–42. (In Russ.).
Naumova N. F. Sociologicheskie i psihologicheskie aspekty celenapravlennogo povedenija. [Sociological and psychological aspects of purposeful behavior]. M.: Nauka publ., 1988. 200 p. (In Russ.).
Reznik Ju. M., Smirnov E. A. Zhiznennye strategii lichnosti. (Opyt kompleksnogo analiza). [Life strategies of personality (experience of complex analysis)]. M., Institut cheloveka RAN, Nezavisimyj institut grazhdanskogo obshhestva publ., 2002. 260 p. (In Russ.).
Sotsiologija Jadova. Metodologicheskij razgovor. (Izbrannye trudy V. A. Jadova). [Sociology of Yadov. Methodological conversation (Selected works of V. A. Yadov)]. Ed. by E. N. Danilova, L. A. Kozlova, P. M. Kozyreva, O. A. Oberemko. M.: Novyj Khronograf publ., 2018. 944 p. (In Russ.).
Uznadze D. N. Eksperimental’nye osnovy psihologii ustanovki. [Experimental foundations of psychology]. Tbilisi, 1961. 210 p. (In Russ.).
Uznadze D. N. Teorija ustanovki. [The theory of installation]. M.: Institut prakticheskoj psihologii, Voronezh: MODJeK publ., 1997. 448 p. (In Russ.).
Zdravomyslov A. G. Metodologija i procedura sociologicheskih issledovanij. [Methodology and procedure of sociological research]. M.: Mysl’ publ., 1969. 205 p. (In Russ.).
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
Harvard
Mozgovaya, A. V. (2019) ’Identifying, Evaluating, and Adapting to Risks in an Atmosphere of Uncertainty’, Sociologicheskaja nauka i social’naja praktika, 7(4), pp. 151-165. doi: https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2019.7.4.6808.
Section
Sociology of Risk
Publisher: Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (FCTAS RAS)