Expert Assessment of Negative Manifestations that Cause Ethnic and National Conflicts in Modern Russia
Research Article
How to Cite
Naydenko V.N. 2020. Expert Assessment of Negative Manifestations that Cause Ethnic and National Conflicts in Modern Russia — Sociologicheskaja nauka i social’naja praktika. Vol. 8. No. 3. P. 149-164. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2020.8.3.7493
Abstract
The article deals with the problems of modern ethnic conflict manifestations, which, if ethnic tension increases in Russian society, may pose a threat to Russia’s national security. The survey conducted by the author of the article (using the methods of questionnaires and in–depth interviews) of twenty experts who are highly qualified specialists in the field of countering ethnoextremism, the results of mass sociological research, analysis of scientific papers and media publications on the research topic allowed us to determine the probability of various negative manifestations that cause the emergence and development of ethno-national conflicts in the next five to seven years.
The most likely negative manifestations (the maximum expert rating is “5”) are the actions of Islamist extremism, including terrorism. The main danger is the terrorist activities of the international organization “Islamic state” and its affiliated extremist structures.
Experts believe that ethnoextremistic actions are quite likely (rating “3”): local population towards non-cultural migrants from the North Caucasus republics; local population towards migrants from Central Asian States and towards Russians in the national republics of Russia; local population towards the Federal government and regional authorities; as well as due to the increased influx of migrants from China towards migrants from Ukraine.
Experts consider negative manifestations of regional elites towards the Federal government, local population towards Russian citizens in foreign countries, as well as manifestations of Russian nationalism and anti-Semitism to be the least likely (rating “2”).
The results of scientific research presented in this article demonstrate the importance of studying the problem of negative ethnic and national manifestations, determining the degree of their influence on the content and dynamics of possible conflicts, and developing effective measures for their timely prevention and suppression.
Keywords:
ethno-national extremism, ethno-national conflicts, interethnic harmony, negative ethnonational manifestations, Islamist extremism, terrorism, migrants, russophobia, anti-semitism
References
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Ramazanov R. O. (2018). Prichiny radikalizatsii musul’man Severnogo Kavkaza (na materialakh respubliki Dagestana). [Reasons for the radicalization of Muslims in the North Caucasus (based on the materials of the Republic of Dagestan)]. ACTA HISTORICA: trudy po istoricheskim i obschestvovedcheskim naukam. №2. P. 155–160. (In Russ.).
Rossiiskoe obschestvo v 2017-m: sotsial’noe samochuvstvie, trevogi, nadezhdy na buduschee. (2017). [Russian society in 2017: social well-being, anxiety, and hopes for the future.]. Informatsionnoanaliticheskoe rezyume po itogam obscherossiiskogo sotsiologicheskogo issledovaniya. M.: FNISTS RAN publ. 82 p. (In Russ.).
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Sultanakhmedova Z. G. (2017). Spetsifika islamskogo ekstremizma. [Specifics of Islamic extremism]. Islamovedenie. № 2. P. 37–54. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.21779/2077-8155-2017-8-2-37-54
Sharipov A. K. (2016). Ideinye istoki islamskogo radikalizma i ekstremizma. [Ideological origins of Islamic radicalism and extremism]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta MVD Rossii. № 8. P. 91–93. (In Russ.).
Yakh’yaev M. Ya., Sultanakhmedova Z. G. Institualizatsiya islamskogo ekstremizma. [Institutionalization of Islamic extremism]. Islamovedenie. 2017. № 3. P. 5–12. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.21779/2077-8155-2017-8-3-5-19
Gorbatova V. V. (2012). Islamskii ekstremizm i terrorizm kak kategorii politicheskogo analiza. [Islamic extremism and terrorism as categories of political analysis]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 12. Politicheskie nauki. № 4. P. 113–116. (In Russ.).
Dvadtsat’ pyat’ let sotsial’nykh transformatsii v otsenkakh i suzhdeniyakh rossiyan: opyt sotsiologich-eskogo analiza. (2018). [Twenty-five years of social transformation in the assessments and judgments of Russians: experience in sociological analysis]. Ed. by M. K. Gorshkov, V. V. Petukhov. M.: Ves’ Mir publ. 384 p. (In Russ.).
Dobaev I. P., Ponedelkov A. V. (2013). Tendentsii v evolyutsii terrorizma na Severnom Kavkaze. [Trends in the evolution of terrorism in the North Caucasus]. Vlast’. № 10. P. 17–22. (In Russ.).
Dobaev I. P. (2019). Svyaschennaya voina v islame: suschnost’, ideologiya, politicheskaya praktika. [Holy war in Islam: essence, ideology, and political practice]. Rossiya i musul’manskii mir. № 2 (312). С. 112–128. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31249/rim/2019/02/06
Drobizheva L. M. (2017). Obscherossiiskaya identichnost’ i uroven’ mezhnatsional’nogo soglasiya kak otrazhenie vektora konsolidatsionnykh protsessov. [All-Russian identity and the level of interethnic harmony as a reflection of the vector of consolidation processes]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya. №1. P. 25–36. (In Russ.).
Drobizheva L. M. (1993). Etnopoliticheskie konflikty. Prichiny i tipologiya (konets 80-kh– nachalo 90-kh gg.). [Ethno-political conflicts. Causes and typology (late 80’s-early 90’s)]. Rossiya segodnya: trudnye poiski svobody. Ed. by L. F. Shevtsova. M.: IEA RAN publ. P. 227–236. (In Russ.).
Mamytov T. B. (2016). Teoriya i praktika global’nogo dzhikhada. [Theory and practice of global Jihad]. Problemy sovremennoy nauki I obrazovanija. №16 (58). P. 130–133. (In Russ.).
Mezhnatsional’noe soglasie v obscherossiiskom i regional’nom izmerenii. Sotsiokul’turnyi i religioznyi konteksty. (2018). [Interethnic harmony in the national and regional dimensions. Socio-cultural and religious contexts:]. Ed. by L. M. Drobizheva. M.: FNISTS RAN publ. 552 p.
Mezhnatsional’noe soglasie kak resurs konsolidatsii rossiiskogo obschestva. (2016). [Inter-ethnic harmony as a resource for the consolidation of the Russian society]. Ed. by L. M. Drobizheva. M.: Institut sotsiologii RAN publ. 400 p. (In Russ.).
Naidenko V. N. (2019a). Napryazhennost’ v etnopoliticheskoi sfere i otsenka vozmozhnosti etnonatsional’nykh konfliktov. [Tension in the ethno-political sphere and assessment of the possibility of ethno-national conflicts]. Sociologicheskaya nauka i social’naya praktika. № 3. P. 22–39. (In Russ.). DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2019.7.3.6687
Naidenko V. N. (2019b). Faktory etnonatsional’noi konfliktnosti v Rossiiskoi Federatsii. [Factors of ethnic and national conflict in the Russian Federation]. Vestnik RUDN. Seriya: Sotsiologiya. T. 19. № 4. P. 707–721. URL: http://journals.rudn.ru/sociology/article/view/22093(In Russ.). DOI: 10.22363/2313-2272-2019-19-4-707-721
Narodnoe edinstvo: mechta ili real’nost’? Press-vypusk VTSIOM № 4092 ot 31.10.2019. [National unity: dream or reality?]. URL: https://wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=9978 (data obrascheniya: 15.02.2020). (In Russ.).
Pipija K. Monitoring ksenofobskikh nastroenii, 2019 g. Press-vypusk ot 18.09.2019. [Monitoring of xenophobic attitudes, 2019]. URL: https://www.levada.ru/2019/09/18/monitoring-ksenofobskihnastroenij-2/ (data obrascheniya: 15.02.2020). (In Russ.).
Pipija K. Monitoring ksenofobskikh nastroenii, iyul’ 2018 goda. Press-vypusk ot 27.08.2018. [Monitoring of xenophobic attitudes, July 2018]. URL: https://www.levada.ru/2018/08/27/monitoringksenofobskih-nastroenij/ (data obrascheniya: 12.11.2019). (In Russ.).
Ramazanov R. O. (2018). Prichiny radikalizatsii musul’man Severnogo Kavkaza (na materialakh respubliki Dagestana). [Reasons for the radicalization of Muslims in the North Caucasus (based on the materials of the Republic of Dagestan)]. ACTA HISTORICA: trudy po istoricheskim i obschestvovedcheskim naukam. №2. P. 155–160. (In Russ.).
Rossiiskoe obschestvo v 2017-m: sotsial’noe samochuvstvie, trevogi, nadezhdy na buduschee. (2017). [Russian society in 2017: social well-being, anxiety, and hopes for the future.]. Informatsionnoanaliticheskoe rezyume po itogam obscherossiiskogo sotsiologicheskogo issledovaniya. M.: FNISTS RAN publ. 82 p. (In Russ.).
Ryzhova S. V. (2019). Doverie i etnicheskie ustanovki kak elementy regional’nogo sotsial’nogo kapitala. [Trust and ethnic attitudes as elements of regional social capital]. Sociologicheskaya nauka i social’naya praktika. T. 7. № 2. P. 81–98. (In Russ.). DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2019.7.2.6411
Sultanakhmedova Z. G. (2017). Spetsifika islamskogo ekstremizma. [Specifics of Islamic extremism]. Islamovedenie. № 2. P. 37–54. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.21779/2077-8155-2017-8-2-37-54
Sharipov A. K. (2016). Ideinye istoki islamskogo radikalizma i ekstremizma. [Ideological origins of Islamic radicalism and extremism]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta MVD Rossii. № 8. P. 91–93. (In Russ.).
Yakh’yaev M. Ya., Sultanakhmedova Z. G. Institualizatsiya islamskogo ekstremizma. [Institutionalization of Islamic extremism]. Islamovedenie. 2017. № 3. P. 5–12. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.21779/2077-8155-2017-8-3-5-19
Article
Received: 24.04.2020
Accepted: 26.09.2020
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
Harvard
Naydenko, V. N. (2020) ’Expert Assessment of Negative Manifestations that Cause Ethnic and National Conflicts in Modern Russia’, Sociologicheskaja nauka i social’naja praktika, 8(3), pp. 149-164. doi: https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2020.8.3.7493.
Section
ETHNOSOCIOLOGY
Publisher: Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (FCTAS RAS)