HIV / AIDS as a Threat to the Demographic Securiy of the Region
How to Cite
Kuklin A.A., Tsvetkov A.I., Ypaneshnikova D.S., KOROBKOV I. . V. HIV / AIDS as a Threat to the Demographic Securiy of the Region. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2019. Vol. 15. No. 4. P. 106-116. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/1999-9836-2019-10086 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The Object of the Study. The territory of the Ural Federal Okrug with HIV infection spread.The Subject of the Study. The socioeconomic relations between the executive and the health system at all levels that arises about the fixation, diagnosis, prevention of HIV infection The Purpose of the Study is critical diagnosing the state of the territory to predict the number of able-bodied population of the region, taking into account socially significant medical factors (incidence of HIV infection).The Main Provisions of the Article. Fertility decline, population aging, mortality have a directly impact on the demographic situation in the Urals Federal Okrug. Population projections are taking into account different socio-economic trends should precede the development of demographic policies. Currently, in most subjects of the Ural Federal Okrug, the number of elderly people is increasing, the number of people of working age is decreasing and, accordingly, the demographic load on the working population is increasing. In the framework of this study, the calculation of demographic security of the Ural Federal Okrug and a model of the influence of various socio-economic factors on it is proposed. It is shown that the level of demographic security for a number of regions included in the Ural Federal Okrug began to decline in 2015 and strive to get out of the normal state. On the basis of the offered model one of the factors influencing demographic safety – HIV infection and AIDS is chosen. The calculation of the medical and demographic forecast of the able-bodied population, are taking into account the impact of HIV infection. Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Regions are among the leaders in the number of HIV-infected people, in some regions we are talking about an epidemic. This disease is characterized by a long latent period, the defeat, mainly young people of working age, the high cost of treatment, the lack of reliable methods of treatment and vaccination. The mathematical model allowing to consider influence of HIV infection on change of population of working age is constructed, calculations for Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk and Kurgan Regions have been carried out. Comparison of forecast values with and without adjustment for HIV/AIDS factors shows a significant impact of the disease on the demographic picture of the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Regions.
Keywords:
Demographic security, HIV infection, AIDS, a mathematical model, population forecast
References
Borodkina O. I. Social'nyj kontekst jepidemii VICh / SPIDa v Rossii // Zhurnal issledovanij social'noj politiki - 2008. - T. 6. - No. 2. - P. 151-176.
Edinyj informacionnyj portal profilaktiki i bor'by so SPID [Jelektronnyj resurs] – Rezhim dostupa: http://livehiv.ru/biblioteka/epidsituatsiya/ (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
VICh-infekcija v Rossijskoj Federacii za 2018 g. [Jelektronnyj resurs] – Rezhim dostupa: http://www.hivrussia.info/dannye-po-vich-infektsii-v-rossii/ (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Gosudarstvennyj doklad Zashhita prav potrebitelej v Rossijskoj Federacii [Jelektronnyj resurs] - Rezhim dostupa: https://rospotrebnadzor.ru/deyatelnost/epidemiological-surveillance/ (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Kolbin A. S., Kurylev A. A., Musatov V. B., Yakovlev A. A. Mezhdunarodnye dannye farmajekonomicheskih issledovanij pri VICh-infekcii.// VICh-infekcija i immunosupressii. – 2012. - Vol. 4-No. 2. – P. 124-132.
Kompleksnaja metodika diagnostiki jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti territorial'nyh obrazovanij RF. Ch. 1, 2: Metodicheskie polozhenija diagnostiki jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti territorij regional'nogo urovnja. Porogovye urovni indikatorov jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti territorij regional'nogo urovnja / A. I. Tatarkin [i dr.] – Ekaterinburg: Institut jekonomiki UrO RAN. - 2001-71 p.
Krivenko N. Sistema upravlenija organizacionno-jekonomicheskimi izmenenijami v sfere zdravoohranenija// Jekonomika regiona. - 2013. - № 1 (33). – pp. 149-157.
Nechaeva O.B., Podymova A. S. Vlijanie VICh-infekcii na demograficheskuju situaciju v Rossii// Medicinskij al'jans.- 2018. - №1. – pp. 6-16.
Podymova A. S., Baskakova I. V., Balandina M. S. Ocenka social'no-jekonomicheskih poter' ot prezhdevremennoj smertnosti naselenija ot VICh-infekcii // Jekonomika regiona. – 2018. - Vol. 14, vol. 4. – P. 1341-1355.
Social'no-demograficheskaja bezopasnost' territorij municipal'nogo urovnja/ pod red. A. A. Kozicina, A. A. Kuklina. – Ekaterinburg: Institut jekonomiki UrO RAN, 2008 – 194 s.
Social'no-jekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii [Jelektronnyj resurs] – Rezhim dostupa: http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/doc_2019/social/osn-01-2019.pdf (s. 238, data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Tatarkin A I.., Krivenko N. V., Reznetsova N. Dialektika racional'nogo upravlenija izmenenijami v regional'nyh social'nyh sistemah//Jekonomika regiona - 2015. - № 2 (42). - pp. 125-136.
Tatarkin A. I., Kuklin A. A. Izmenenie paradigmy issledovanij Jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti regiona// Jekonomika regiona. – 2012. - №2. – S. 25-39.
Uskorenie: prekrashhenie jepidemii SPIDa k 2030 godu [Jelektronnyj resurs] - Rezhim dostupa: ttps://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/JC2686_WAD2014report_ru.pdf. (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Chislennost' naselenija. «Regiony Rossii. Social'no-jekonomicheskie pokazateli» [Jelektronnyj resurs] – Rezhim dostupa: https://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b18_14p/Main.htm.
Jekonomicheskaja bezopasnost' Sverdlovskoj oblasti / Pod nauch. red. G.A. Kovalevoj i A.A. Kuklina – Ekaterinburg: Izd-vo Ural. un-ta. - 2003. – 455 p.
Jekonomicheskie i klinicheskie voprosy VICh-infekcii/ Baltijskij medicinskij obrazovatel'nyj centr [pod red. N. A. Beljakova] Sankt-Peterburg. - 2014-210 p.
Adrian E. Raftery, Le Bao. Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling. Biometrics. – 2010. - vol. 4(66). - pp. 1162-1173.
Chen X. Understanding the development and perception of global health for more effective student education //The Yale journal of biology and medicine. – 2014. – Т. 87. – №. 3. – С. 231-240.
C. Nagaraja Rao, T. Srivenkataramana. Projection of HIV infections in India: An Alternative to Back-calculation. // Current Science. – 2001. - vol. 81, no. 10. - pp. 1302–1307.
Kumi Smith, Kimberly A. Powers, Angela D.M. Kashuba. Cohena. HIV-1 treatment as prevention: the good, the bad, and the challenges// Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS. – 2011 - issue 4(6). - pp. 315–325.
Kylie-Ann Mallitt, David P Wilson, Ann McDonald. Is Back-Projection Methodology Still Relevant for Estimating HIV Incidence from National Surveillance Data? // Open AIDS Jоurnal. – 2011. - issue 6. - pp. 108–111.
Merson M. H., Black R. E., Mills A. J. Global health. – Jones & Bartlett Publishers, 2011.
Number of people (all ages) living with HIV Estimates by WHO region [Jelektronnyj resurs] - Rezhim dostupa: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.22100WHO?lang=en# (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Theodore K HIV/AIDS in the Caribbean: economic issues—impact and investment response// Commission on Macroeconomics and Health Working Paper Series, Paper No. WG1:1 -2001. [Jelektronnyj resurs] - Rezhim dostupa: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/hiv/impact/chap8.pdf (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Tramarin A., Campostrini S., Postma M.J A multicentre study of patient survival, disability, quality of life and cost of care// PharmacoEconomics. - January 2004. – V. 22. – Is. 1. - pp 43–53.
Edinyj informacionnyj portal profilaktiki i bor'by so SPID [Jelektronnyj resurs] – Rezhim dostupa: http://livehiv.ru/biblioteka/epidsituatsiya/ (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
VICh-infekcija v Rossijskoj Federacii za 2018 g. [Jelektronnyj resurs] – Rezhim dostupa: http://www.hivrussia.info/dannye-po-vich-infektsii-v-rossii/ (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Gosudarstvennyj doklad Zashhita prav potrebitelej v Rossijskoj Federacii [Jelektronnyj resurs] - Rezhim dostupa: https://rospotrebnadzor.ru/deyatelnost/epidemiological-surveillance/ (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Kolbin A. S., Kurylev A. A., Musatov V. B., Yakovlev A. A. Mezhdunarodnye dannye farmajekonomicheskih issledovanij pri VICh-infekcii.// VICh-infekcija i immunosupressii. – 2012. - Vol. 4-No. 2. – P. 124-132.
Kompleksnaja metodika diagnostiki jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti territorial'nyh obrazovanij RF. Ch. 1, 2: Metodicheskie polozhenija diagnostiki jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti territorij regional'nogo urovnja. Porogovye urovni indikatorov jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti territorij regional'nogo urovnja / A. I. Tatarkin [i dr.] – Ekaterinburg: Institut jekonomiki UrO RAN. - 2001-71 p.
Krivenko N. Sistema upravlenija organizacionno-jekonomicheskimi izmenenijami v sfere zdravoohranenija// Jekonomika regiona. - 2013. - № 1 (33). – pp. 149-157.
Nechaeva O.B., Podymova A. S. Vlijanie VICh-infekcii na demograficheskuju situaciju v Rossii// Medicinskij al'jans.- 2018. - №1. – pp. 6-16.
Podymova A. S., Baskakova I. V., Balandina M. S. Ocenka social'no-jekonomicheskih poter' ot prezhdevremennoj smertnosti naselenija ot VICh-infekcii // Jekonomika regiona. – 2018. - Vol. 14, vol. 4. – P. 1341-1355.
Social'no-demograficheskaja bezopasnost' territorij municipal'nogo urovnja/ pod red. A. A. Kozicina, A. A. Kuklina. – Ekaterinburg: Institut jekonomiki UrO RAN, 2008 – 194 s.
Social'no-jekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii [Jelektronnyj resurs] – Rezhim dostupa: http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/doc_2019/social/osn-01-2019.pdf (s. 238, data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Tatarkin A I.., Krivenko N. V., Reznetsova N. Dialektika racional'nogo upravlenija izmenenijami v regional'nyh social'nyh sistemah//Jekonomika regiona - 2015. - № 2 (42). - pp. 125-136.
Tatarkin A. I., Kuklin A. A. Izmenenie paradigmy issledovanij Jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti regiona// Jekonomika regiona. – 2012. - №2. – S. 25-39.
Uskorenie: prekrashhenie jepidemii SPIDa k 2030 godu [Jelektronnyj resurs] - Rezhim dostupa: ttps://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/JC2686_WAD2014report_ru.pdf. (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Chislennost' naselenija. «Regiony Rossii. Social'no-jekonomicheskie pokazateli» [Jelektronnyj resurs] – Rezhim dostupa: https://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b18_14p/Main.htm.
Jekonomicheskaja bezopasnost' Sverdlovskoj oblasti / Pod nauch. red. G.A. Kovalevoj i A.A. Kuklina – Ekaterinburg: Izd-vo Ural. un-ta. - 2003. – 455 p.
Jekonomicheskie i klinicheskie voprosy VICh-infekcii/ Baltijskij medicinskij obrazovatel'nyj centr [pod red. N. A. Beljakova] Sankt-Peterburg. - 2014-210 p.
Adrian E. Raftery, Le Bao. Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling. Biometrics. – 2010. - vol. 4(66). - pp. 1162-1173.
Chen X. Understanding the development and perception of global health for more effective student education //The Yale journal of biology and medicine. – 2014. – Т. 87. – №. 3. – С. 231-240.
C. Nagaraja Rao, T. Srivenkataramana. Projection of HIV infections in India: An Alternative to Back-calculation. // Current Science. – 2001. - vol. 81, no. 10. - pp. 1302–1307.
Kumi Smith, Kimberly A. Powers, Angela D.M. Kashuba. Cohena. HIV-1 treatment as prevention: the good, the bad, and the challenges// Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS. – 2011 - issue 4(6). - pp. 315–325.
Kylie-Ann Mallitt, David P Wilson, Ann McDonald. Is Back-Projection Methodology Still Relevant for Estimating HIV Incidence from National Surveillance Data? // Open AIDS Jоurnal. – 2011. - issue 6. - pp. 108–111.
Merson M. H., Black R. E., Mills A. J. Global health. – Jones & Bartlett Publishers, 2011.
Number of people (all ages) living with HIV Estimates by WHO region [Jelektronnyj resurs] - Rezhim dostupa: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.22100WHO?lang=en# (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Theodore K HIV/AIDS in the Caribbean: economic issues—impact and investment response// Commission on Macroeconomics and Health Working Paper Series, Paper No. WG1:1 -2001. [Jelektronnyj resurs] - Rezhim dostupa: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/hiv/impact/chap8.pdf (data obrashhenija 20.08.2019).
Tramarin A., Campostrini S., Postma M.J A multicentre study of patient survival, disability, quality of life and cost of care// PharmacoEconomics. - January 2004. – V. 22. – Is. 1. - pp 43–53.
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Kuklin, A. A., Tsvetkov, A. I., Ypaneshnikova, D. S., & KOROBKOV, I. . V. (2019). HIV / AIDS as a Threat to the Demographic Securiy of the Region. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 15(4), 106-116. https://doi.org/10.19181/1999-9836-2019-10086
Section
SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
