Population Aging in Russia and China: Features and Socioeconomic Risks
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The article was prepared with the support of the RFBR, project 20-010-00036 «Methodology for assessing risks and opportunities for adaptation to the process of demographic aging in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation»
How to Cite
Dobrokhleb V.G., Barsukov V.N. Population Aging in Russia and China: Features and Socioeconomic Risks. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2020. Vol. 16. No. 4. P. 36-48. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2020.16.4.3 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article is devoted to one of the main demographic challenges for Russia and China - population aging. In the first part of the work, the main trends in the transformation of the age structure are considered, and the conclusion is drawn about the heterogeneity of the demographic aging process in the studied countries. It was revealed that Russia, which entered the phase of population aging earlier than China, practically does not progress in terms of growth in survival rates and healthy life expectancy of the population, which is reflected in a noticeably lower rate of deepening of old age in the age structure. The aging process of the Chinese population is noticeably more balanced due to the absence of serious gender differences in mortality rates, as well as due to the significantly lower internal differentiation of regions. The second part of the article analyzes the existing and probable socio-economic risks caused by the aging of the age structure of the population of Russia and China. It has been determined that for both countries, the problem of intensive aging of the population is becoming one of the key ones. Even now, the BRICS countries (all of which, with the exception of Russia, have seen a significant increase in the share and size of the older generation) are showing a decline in economic growth. After the completion of the stage of implementation of the demographic dividend, these indicators may fall to extremely low values, which, under a certain scenario, may become a catalyst for the emergence of a new planetary economic crisis, given the contribution of the BRICS countries to the world economy (especially China). Overcoming the negative consequences of the phenomenon of population aging is possible only with the development of a systematic policy for maintaining sustainable socio-economic development in new demographic conditions
Keywords:
demographic aging, population aging, age structure of the population, demographic dividend, pension provision, socioeconomic risks, Russia, China
References
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Thompson W.S. Population. American Journal of Sociology. 1929. No. 34. P. 959-975.
Dobrokhleb V.G. Social challenges of the new pension reform in the context of the current demographic situation in Russia. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2019. Vol. 11. No. 4. P. 59-64. (In Russ.)
Dormidontova Y.A., Lyashok V.Y. Nazarov V.S. The Impact of Changes in the Pension Formula on Decisions on Retirement. Journal of the New Economic Association. 2015. No. 1, P. 57-75. (In Russ.)
Ziebert H. The Cobra Effect. How can misconceptions be avoided in economic policy. SPb: Publishing house of SPbGUEF, 2003. (In Russ.)
Klupt M.A. Paradigms and Oppositions of Modern Demography. Demographic Review. 2014. No. 1. Accessed 02.06.2020. URL: https://demreview.hse.ru/data/2014/07/15/1312457289/2_.pdf (In Russ.)
Rosset E. (1968) The process of population aging. M .: Statistika. (In Russ.)
Sauvi A. General theory of the population. Vol. 2: Life of the population. М.: Statistika, 1977. (In Russ.)
Shabunova A.A. Social development and demographic challenges of our time. Problems of territory development. 2014. No. 2. P. 7-17. (In Russ.)
Shabunova A.A., Barsukov V.N. Trends in demographic aging of the population of the Russian Federation and ways to overcome them // Problems of territory development. 2015. No.1. P. 76-87. (In Russ.)
Alper F., Alrep A., Ucan O.The Economic Impacts of Aging Societies. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues. 2016. No. 3. P. 1225–1235.
Barsukov V.N. From the demographic dividend to population ageing: world trends in the systemwide transition. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2019, No. 4. P.167–182. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.4.64.11
Basten S., Jiang Q. Fertility in China: An uncertain future. Population Studies. 2015. No 69. P. 97-105. DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.982898
Dobrokhleb V.G., Barsukov V.N. Demographic Theories and the Regional Aspect of Population Ageing. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2017. No. 6. P. 89-103. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2017.6.54.6
Golini A. Demographic trends and aging in Europe. Prospects, problems and policies. Genus. 1997. No. 53. P. 33-74.
Kaplan M., Inguanzo M. The Social, Economic, and Public Health Consequences of Global Population Aging: Implications for Social Work Practice and Public Policy. Journal of Social Work in the Global Community. 2017. No. 1. P. 1-12.
Lee R., Mason A. (2015) Population aging, wealth, and economic growth: demographic dividends and public policy. New York: WESS background paper.
Notestein F.W. (1945) Population. The Long View Food for the World. University of Chicago Press.
Orlicka E. Impact of population ageing and elderly poverty on macroeconomic aggregates. Procedia Economics and Finance. 2015. No. 30. P. 598-605.
Reher D. Economic and social implications of the demographic transition. Population and Development Review. 2011. No. 37. P. 11-33.
Thompson W.S. Population. American Journal of Sociology. 1929. No. 34. P. 959-975.
Article
Received: 28.08.2020
Accepted: 10.11.2020
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Dobrokhleb, V. G., & Barsukov, V. N. (2020). Population Aging in Russia and China: Features and Socioeconomic Risks. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 16(4), 36-48. https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2020.16.4.3
Section
ECONOMIC RESEARCH
