Influence of the Average per Capita Income on Credit and Savings Behavior of the Population in Russia
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The reported study was funded by RFBR according to the research project № 19-010-00801 A
How to Cite
Gamukin V.V., Miroshnichenko O.S. Influence of the Average per Capita Income on Credit and Savings Behavior of the Population in Russia. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2021. Vol. 17. No. 1. P. 57-66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2021.17.1.5 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The successful functioning of the national economy is largely determined by the stability of its banking system. The article is aimed at studying the features of credit and savings behavior of the population based on the reporting data of the Central Bank of Russia and Rosstat for the period 01.02.2011 – 01.08.2020. It is proposed to characterize the features of such behavior based on an analysis of the relationship between the volumes of deposit and credit transactions of the population. The theoretical part of the article considers various aspects of determining the behavioral approach to savings: bank contribution, as a form of realization of investments; conservation as a form of reaction to instability; appeal to the bank as part of the fight against the economic crisis, etc. In the practical part of the study, using comparison and graphical analysis methods, 3 periods of transformation of these types of population behavior were identified based on a change in the relationship between the volume of debt on loans and the volume of deposits. Absolute parameters of marginal sizes of fluctuations of indicators of deposit and credit transactions for use in prognostic purposes were evaluated. The value of the deposit volume shift was calculated, which ensured a reduction in the size of the negative balance of deposit and loan operations in the domestic banking system during the crisis of 2015–2016, which contributed to the stability of this system. The analysis of the compared indicators showed the comparability of the dynamics of the change in the ratio of deposits and debt on loans with the dynamics of the average per capita monetary income of the population. The study revealed a stable increase in the volume of deposits of the population in most monthly indicators, which allows us to expect the stability of the banking system of Russia in terms of a balanced subsystem of deposit and credit operations.
Keywords:
population deposits, debt on the population credits, savings behavior, credit behavior, average per capita income, stability of a banking system
References
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Karas, A., Pyle, W., Schoors, K. Deposit insurance, banking crises, and market discipline: Evidence from a natural experiment on deposit flows and rates. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 2013. Vol. 45. No. 1. pp. 179-200.
Kochaniak, K. High value household deposits in the Eurozone: single post-crisis approach vs. national facts. Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski. 2016. vol. 47(6). pp. 529-552.
Le Bon, G. The Crowd. 1977. New York: Penguin Books. Schelling, T.C. Micromotives and Macrobehavior. 1978. W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.
Shafir, E., Diamond, P., Tversky, A. Money Illusion. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1997. Vol. 2. pp. 341-374.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein S. Facts Versus Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk. 1980. New York: Plenum Press. Statman, M., Fisher, K.L., Anginer, D. Affect in a Behavioral Asset-Pricing Model. Financial Analysts Journal. 2008. Vol. 64. № 2. pp. 1-10. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1094070
Statman M., Fisher K.L., Anginer D. Affect in a Behavioral Asset-Pricing Model. Financial Analysts Journal. 2008. Vol. 64. № 2. pp. 1-10. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1094070
Thaler, R., Benartzi, S. Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving. Journal of Political Economy. 2004. No. 112(1). pp. 164-187. DOI: 10.1086/380085
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. Advances Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 1992. Vol. 5. No 4. pp. 297-323.
Aleksandrova, L.S. Questions of bank crediting of natural persons. Economy Buisness Banks. 2018. No. 2 (23). pp. 33-45. (In Russ.).
Alikperova, N.V. Dynamics of investment and savings activity of the population of Russia. Population. 2015. No. 3 (69). pp. 85-92. (In Russ.).
Berezin, I.S. The middle class of Russia passed to «savings» model of consumer behavior. The Kazan Economic Bulletin. 2016. No. 2 (22). pp. 5-12. (In Russ.).
Zolotov A.V., Zolotov S.A. Implementation of the principles of unconditional basic income as a response to the challenges of coronavirus. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2020. T. 16. No. 4. pp. 96-104. DOI: 10.19181/lsprr.2020.16.4.8
Ibragimova, D.H. Types of savings and credit conduct. Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes Journal. 2009. No. 2 (90). pp. 156-171. (In Russ.).
Kozyreva, P.M. Financial behavior in the context of social and economic adaptation of the population (sociological analysis). Sociologicheskie issledovaniya. 2012. No. 7 (339). pp. 54-66. (In Russ.).
Krasnilnikova, M.D. How the Russ. population is going through another economic crisis. Mir Rossii. Sociologiya. Etnologiya. 2010. Vol. 19. No. 4. pp. 162-181. (In Russ.).
Kuzina, O.E., Krupenskij, N.A. Over-indebtedness of Russns: Myth or reality? Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2018. No. 11. pp. 85-104. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2018-11-85-104
Leonov, M.V. Regulation of interest rates for deposits (on the example of a banking system of China. Den'gi i kredit. 2015. No. 5. pp. 74-79. (In Russ.).
Lola I.S., Manukov A.B., Bakeev M.B. Stress testing in statistical modeling of business activity in conditions of shocks. Voprosy statistiki Statistics issues. 2020. T. 27. No. 4. pp. 5-23. DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2020-27-4-5-23
Makin, I.O. Economic behavior of clients of commercial banks. Sociology of power. 2011. № 2. pp. 80-87. (In Russ.).
Petuhova, M.V. Some features of credit behavior of borrowers of the Novosibirsk region in the sector of retail crediting. Region: Economics and Sociology. 2014. No 4 (84). pp. 228-233. (In Russ.).
Strebkov, D.O. Transformation of savings strategies of the Russ. population. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2001. № 10. pp. 97-111. (In Russ.).
Kheifets B.A., Chernova V.Yu. New global economic crisis: how will globalization change? Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law. 2020. T. 13. No. 4. pp. 34-52. DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2020-13-4-2
Hromov, M. Population deposits in January-August 2018. Russian Economic Developments. 2018. T. 25. No. 10. pp. 44-46. (In Russ.).
Shafirov, L.A. Optimization of crediting of low-profit groups of the population at the regional and municipal levels: justification of a problem of a research. Journal of Economic Regulation. 2014. T. 5. No. 4. pp. 136-161. (In Russ.).
Shevchenko, D.A., Davydenko, A.V. Financial literacy of the population as a factor of household savings behavior. TERRA ECONOMICUS. 2013. Vol. 11. No. 4-2. pp. 139-144. (In Russ.).
Schelling T.K. Micromotives and Macrobehavior. 2016. Moscow: Institute of Gaidar. (In Russ.).
Scherbal, M.S. Modeling of savings behavior of the population in conditions of instability: empirical experience. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: ekonomicheskie i social'nye peremeny. 2013. № 5 (117). pp. 114-122. (In Russ.).
Armstrong, J., Mulligan, N. Diving in the deep end of domestic deposits. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes. 2017. No. AN2017/05. pp. 1-25.
Barberis, N.C. Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2013. V. 27 (1): pp. 173–196. DOI: 10.3386/w18621
Bricker, J., Dettling, L. J., Henriques, A., Hsu, J. W., Jacobs, L., Moore, K. B., Windle, R. A. Changes in US family finances from 2013 to 2016: Evidence from the survey of consumer finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin. 2017.Vol. 103, No. 3. pp. 1-42.
Camerer, C., Lovallo, D. Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental approach. American Economic Review. 1999. Vol. 89. pp. 306-318.
De Bondt, W., Thaler, R. Does the Stock Market Overreact? Journal of Finance. 1984. Vol. 40, No. 3. pp. 793-805. DOI: 10.2307/2327804
Frazzini, A. The Disposition Effect and Under-reaction to News. Journal of Finance. 2006. No. 61(4). pp. 2017–46.
Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, New Series. 1974. Vol. 185. No. 4157. pp. 1124-1131.
Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. Prospect Theory: an Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica. 1979. Vol. 47. No. 2. pp. 263-292.
Karas, A., Pyle, W., Schoors, K. Deposit insurance, banking crises, and market discipline: Evidence from a natural experiment on deposit flows and rates. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 2013. Vol. 45. No. 1. pp. 179-200.
Kochaniak, K. High value household deposits in the Eurozone: single post-crisis approach vs. national facts. Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski. 2016. vol. 47(6). pp. 529-552.
Le Bon, G. The Crowd. 1977. New York: Penguin Books. Schelling, T.C. Micromotives and Macrobehavior. 1978. W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.
Shafir, E., Diamond, P., Tversky, A. Money Illusion. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1997. Vol. 2. pp. 341-374.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein S. Facts Versus Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk. 1980. New York: Plenum Press. Statman, M., Fisher, K.L., Anginer, D. Affect in a Behavioral Asset-Pricing Model. Financial Analysts Journal. 2008. Vol. 64. № 2. pp. 1-10. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1094070
Statman M., Fisher K.L., Anginer D. Affect in a Behavioral Asset-Pricing Model. Financial Analysts Journal. 2008. Vol. 64. № 2. pp. 1-10. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1094070
Thaler, R., Benartzi, S. Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving. Journal of Political Economy. 2004. No. 112(1). pp. 164-187. DOI: 10.1086/380085
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. Advances Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 1992. Vol. 5. No 4. pp. 297-323.
Article
Received: 17.11.2020
Accepted: 19.03.2021
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Gamukin, V. V., & Miroshnichenko, O. S. (2021). Influence of the Average per Capita Income on Credit and Savings Behavior of the Population in Russia. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 17(1), 57-66. https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2021.17.1.5
Section
ECONOMIC RESEARCH
