Simulation of scenarios for overcoming absolute monetary poverty in Russia based on the concept of unconditional basic income
Research Article
Acknowledgments
RFBR project No. 20-010-00271
How to Cite
Bobkov V.N., Antipov V.I., Kolmakov I.B., Chernykh E.A. Simulation of scenarios for overcoming absolute monetary poverty in Russia based on the concept of unconditional basic income. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2021. Vol. 17. No. 2. P. 204-215. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2021.17.2.4 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article is devoted to modeling the possibilities of overcoming absolute monetary poverty in Russia based on the concept of an unconditional basic income (UBI). It is shown that due to the unclear consequences of the impact of the introduction of UBI payments on various aspects of the life of modern societies, due to the impossibility of making payments in full compliance with the basic principles of UBI, such as universality and unconditionality due to political, economic and other restrictions, imitation is widely used in the world to evaluate its possible effects. A review of approaches to simulation modeling in the EU countries, international research, and financial organizations (OECD, World Bank, International Monetary Fund) and the Russian experience in modeling the effects of the introduction of transitional forms of UBI is carried out. The formulation of the task of introducing the UBI to overcome absolute monetary poverty has been carried out. It is shown that to solve this problem, it is expedient to consider the UBI as a guaranteed minimum per capita income of a poor household, equal to the regional subsistence minimum or the conditional basic income for overcoming poverty. To increase the actual incomes of low-income households up to the regional subsistence minimum, it is proposed to pay them, after providing standard targeted social support, the additional differentiated regional social payment (poverty benefit). Algorithms for determining this payment have been developed. The substantiation of the possibility and feasibility of modeling the effects of poverty benefit according to the domestic model of the tempo-deflator type has been carried out. The results of predictive calculations for this model are presented. It is shown that the additional revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation not only compensate for the initial costs of implementing the conditional UBI program but also annually exceed the initial costs by about 1,35 times. The country's leadership was proposed to combine the current system of targeted social support for the poor with payments of the conditional UBI to more consistently solve the problem of absolute monetary poverty
Keywords:
absolute monetary poverty, unconditional basic income, conditional basic income for overcoming absolute monetary poverty, regional cost of living, additional social payment, simulation modeling, simulation models for testing transitional forms of conditional basic income based on EUROMOD, simulation model of tempo-deflator type Р1-4
References
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24. Martinelli, L. A Basic Income Trilemma: Affordability, Adequacy, and the Advantages of Radically Simplified Welfare. Journal of Social Policy. Vol. 49. No.3. P.461-482. DOI: 10.1017/S0047279419000424
25. Martinelli, L. Exploring the distributional and work incentive effects of plausible illustrative Basic Income schemes. IPR Working Paper. Bath: Institute for Policy Research, University of Bath. 2017. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.bath.ac.uk/publications/exploring-the-distributional-work-incentive-effects-of-plausible-illustrative-basic-income-schemes/attachments/ Luke_WP2_Web.pdf
26. Martinelli, L. O'Neill K. A comparison of the fiscal and distributional effects of alternative basic income implementation modes across the EU28 EUROMOD Working Paper Series EM14/19- July 25, 2019
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28. Torry M. Static microsimulation research on Citizen’s Basic Income for the UK: a personal summary and further reflections. EUROMOD Working Paper Series EM13/19. 2019. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/euromod/em13-19
29. Torry M. Two feasible ways to implement a revenue neutral Citizen’s Income scheme. EUROMOD Working Paper EM6/15. Colchester: Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. 2015. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/euromod/em6-15
30. Torry M. A variety of indicators evaluated for two implementation methods for a Citizen’s Basic Income. EUROMOD Working Paper Series EM12/17. 2017. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.euromod.ac.uk/publications/variety-indicators-evaluatedtwo-implementation-methods-citizen%E2%80%99s-basic-income
2. Antipov V.I., Kolmakov I.B. Programma rascheta mul'tiplikatora tselevykh zatrat domashnikh khozyaystv. Svidetel'stvo o registratsii programmy dlya EVM RU [The program for calculating the multiplier of target household costs. Certificate of registration of the computer program RU]. 2016616984. 22.06.2016. Application No. 2016614237 dated 04.22.2016. (In Russ.).
3. Antipov V.I., Mitin N.I., Pashchenko F.F. Modifitsirovannaya makroekonomicheskaya imitatsionnaya model' razvitiya Rossii [Modified macroeconomic simulation model of the development of Russia] Keldysh Institute preprints. M.V. Keldysh. 2018. No. 272. 36 p. ISSN 2071-2898 (In Russ.).
4. Bobkov V.N. Improvement of the targeted social support of low-income families with children: Vologda Pilot Project. Population. 2019. Vol. 22. No. 1. P. 106-121. DOI: 10.24411/1561-7785-2019-00008 (In Russ.).
5. Bobkov V.N., Gulyugina A.A., Odintsova Y.V. Methodological Approaches to Strengthening Addressed Social Supporting Indigent Families with Children. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2019. Vol. 15. No. 1. P. 9-19. DOI: 10.24411/1999-9836-2019-10049 (In Russ.).
6. Bobkov V.N., Dolgushkin N.K., Odintsova Y.V. Universal Basic Income: Reflections on the Possible Impact on Improving the Living Standards and Quality of Life and the Sustainability of Society. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2019. Vol. 15. No. 3. P. 8-24. DOI: 10.24411/1999-9836-2019-10069 (In Russ.).
7. Bobkov V.N., Antipov V.I., Kolmakov I.B., Pavlova V.V. Transitional Forms of Universal Basic Income and Options of Testing Tools in Russia, Illustrated by Unemployed. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2020. Vol.17. No.5. P. 69-84. DOI: 10.21686/2413-2829-2020-5-69-84 (In Russ.).
8. Bobkov V.N., Odintsova Y.V. (2021) Russian Experts on Universal Basic Income: Estimates for 2020. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2021. Vol. 17. No. 1. P. 67-86. DOI: 10.19181/lsprr.2021.17.1.6 (In Russ.).
9. Bobkov V.N., Chernykh E.A., Zolotov S.A., Pavlova V.V. (2020) Unconditional Basic Income: Criterial Bases, Transitional Forms and Experimental Implementations. Sociological Studies. 2020. No. 10. P. 84-94 (In Russ.).
10. Kolmakov I.B. Methodology for measuring inequality of money income of the population: analysis and forecast of indicators of differentiation and polarization. Audit and financial analysis. 2016. No. 6. P. 409-424 (In Russ.).
11. Kolmakov I.B. Methods of the Optimal Distribution of the Transfers. Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2007. Vol. 43. No. 3. P. 102–120 (In Russ.).
12. Kolmakov I.B., Antipov V.I. Assessing the multiplying effect of target finance expenses of households. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2016. No. 2 (86). P. 130-140 (In Russ.).
13. Surinov A.E. Dokhody naseleniya. Opyt kolichestvennykh izmereniy [Population income. Experience in quantitative measurements]. Moscow: Finance and statistics. 2000. 432 p. (In Russ.).
14. Chernykh E.A. The Current State of Research of the Content, Forms, Tools and Mechanisms of Introducing Unconditional Basic Income. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2020. Vol. 16. No. 2. P. 61-75. DOI: 10.19181/lsprr/2020.16.2.6 (In Russ.).
15. Atkinson A. B., Leventi C., Nolan B., Sutherland H., Tasseva I. (2017) Reducing poverty and inequality through tax-benefit reform and the minimum wage: the UK as a case-study. EUROMOD Working Paper EM 13/17. Colchester: Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318420541_Reducing_poverty_and_inequality_through_tax-benefit_reform_and_the_minimum_wage_the_UK_as_a_case-study
16. Browne, J., and Immervoll H. Mechanics of Replacing Benefit Systems with a Basic Income: Comparative Results from a Microsimulation Approach. Journal of Economic Inequality. 2017. Vol.15. No.4. P. 325–44. DOI: 10.1007/s10888-017-9366-6
17. Coady, D., Prady D. Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Issues, Options and an Illustration for India. IMF Working Paper 18/174. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. 2018. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/07/31/Universal-BasicIncome-in-Developing-Countries-Issues-Options-and-Illustration-for-India-46079
18. Gentilini, U.; Grosh, M.; Rigolini, J.; Yemtsov, R. Exploring Universal Basic Income: A Guide to Navigating Concepts, Evidence, and Practices. Washington, DC: World Bank. 2020. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32677
19. Hanna, R., Olken В.А. Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2018. Vol. 32. No. 4. P. 201–26. DOI: 10.1257/jep.32.4.201
20. Hoynes, H.W., Rothstein J. Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries. NBER Working Paper 25538. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. 2019. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf
21. IMF. Fiscal Monitor: Tackling Inequality. Washington, DC: IMF. 2017. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2017/10/05/fiscal-monitor-october-2017 ISBN: 978-1-48431-248-3
22. Lansley S., Reed H. Basic Income for all: From desirability to feasibility. London: Compass. 2019. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: http://www.compassonline.org.uk/basic-income-for-all/
23. Lansley S., Reed H. Universal Basic Income: An idea whose time has come? London: Compass. 2016. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: http://www.compassonline.org.uk/publications/universal-basic-income-an-idea-whose-time-has-come/
24. Martinelli, L. A Basic Income Trilemma: Affordability, Adequacy, and the Advantages of Radically Simplified Welfare. Journal of Social Policy. Vol. 49. No.3. P.461-482. DOI: 10.1017/S0047279419000424
25. Martinelli, L. Exploring the distributional and work incentive effects of plausible illustrative Basic Income schemes. IPR Working Paper. Bath: Institute for Policy Research, University of Bath. 2017. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.bath.ac.uk/publications/exploring-the-distributional-work-incentive-effects-of-plausible-illustrative-basic-income-schemes/attachments/ Luke_WP2_Web.pdf
26. Martinelli, L. O'Neill K. A comparison of the fiscal and distributional effects of alternative basic income implementation modes across the EU28 EUROMOD Working Paper Series EM14/19- July 25, 2019
27. Stirling, A., Arnold S. Nothing Personal: Replacing the Personal Tax Allowance with a Weekly National Allowance: How we can change the tax system to be more progressive while increasing the breadth, depth and generosity of the UK’s income safety net. London: New Economics Foundation. 2019
28. Torry M. Static microsimulation research on Citizen’s Basic Income for the UK: a personal summary and further reflections. EUROMOD Working Paper Series EM13/19. 2019. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/euromod/em13-19
29. Torry M. Two feasible ways to implement a revenue neutral Citizen’s Income scheme. EUROMOD Working Paper EM6/15. Colchester: Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. 2015. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/euromod/em6-15
30. Torry M. A variety of indicators evaluated for two implementation methods for a Citizen’s Basic Income. EUROMOD Working Paper Series EM12/17. 2017. Accessed 19.03.2021. URL: https://www.euromod.ac.uk/publications/variety-indicators-evaluatedtwo-implementation-methods-citizen%E2%80%99s-basic-income
Article
Received: 14.04.2021
Accepted: 31.05.2021
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Bobkov, V. N., Antipov, V. I., Kolmakov, I. B., & Chernykh, E. A. (2021). Simulation of scenarios for overcoming absolute monetary poverty in Russia based on the concept of unconditional basic income. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 17(2), 204-215. https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2021.17.2.4
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ECONOMIC RESEARCH
