Possible Demographic Prospects of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the Period up to 2030
Research Article
How to Cite
Galin R.A., Prudnikov V.P., Utyasheva I.B., Shamsutdinova N.K. Possible Demographic Prospects of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the Period up to 2030. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2016. Vol. 12. No. 3. P. 206-213. (in Russ.).
Abstract
The Purpose of the Study is to build a forecast for population structure of the Republic of Bashkortostan.
The Object of the Study comprises all demographical processes in the republic. On the first stage we propose scenarios for natality and mortality (low, medium and high), as well as two scenarios for migration processes. We use cohort-component method for forecasting of the population number and population structure of the Republic of Bashkortostan up to 2030. The conclusion is that the trend is to a great extent predetermined by the existing age structure of the population. Under all scenarios until 2030 we expect the population number to decrease, the aged dependency ratio to grow significantly and natural increase to be negative.
Keywords:
population, age-sex structure, fertility, mortality, migration, a forecast, the Republic of Bashkortostan
References
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4. Vishnevskij A.G. Rossiya: demograficheskie vyzovy blizhajshih desyatiletij// Vestnik Akademii nauk Respubliki Bashkortostan. 2013. №1. S. 35-41.
5. Demograficheskij ezhegodnik Rossii: stat. sb. M: Rosstat, 2015. S. 237-238.
6. Demograficheskij potencial Respubliki Bashkortostan: sostoyanie i tendencii razvitiya / Otv. red. P.M. Valiahmetov, G.F. Hilazheva. Ufa: AN RB, Gilem, 2013.
7. Denisenko M.B. O demograficheskom trende i demograficheskih prognozah// ZHurnal novoj ehkonomicheskoj associacii. 2011. №9. S. 182-184.
8. Zajceva YU.V. Scenarnoe modelirovanie dinamiki demograficheskih processov (na primere Volgogradskoj oblasti)// Problemy prognozirovaniya. 2013 . №6. S. 67-79.
9. Leshchenko YA.A. Prognozirovanie chislennosti i sostava naseleniya goroda kak osnova social'no-ehkonomicheskogo planirovaniya// Izvestiya Irkutskoj gosudarstvennoj ehkonomicheskoj akademii. 2011. №4. S. 187-193.
10. Prudnikov V. B., SHamsutdinova N. K. Prognoz chislennosti naseleniya g. Ufa v trudosposobnom vozraste do 2030 goda// Matematicheskoe modelirovanie v ehkonomike, strahovanii i upravlenii riskami: Sbornik materialov IV Mezhdunarodnoj molodezhnoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferencii. Saratov: Saratovskij nacional'nyj issledovatel'skij gosudarstvennyj universitet im. N.G. CHernyshevskogo, 2015. S.194-198.
11. Nifantova R.V., Makarova M.N., Kos'min I.F. Ekaterinburg na demograficheskoj karte Rossii: realii i perspektivy// EHkonomika regiona. 2010. №4. S. 52-59.
12. Respublika Bashkortostan. Demograficheskij doklad. Vypusk 1//Otv.red. R.M. Valiahmetov, G.F. Hilazheva. Ufa: Vostochnaya pechat', 2014. S. 60.
13. Suknyova S.A. Demograficheskoe razvitie Respubliki Saha (YAkutiya): sostoyanie i perspektivy// Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii. 2013 . №1. S. 33-40.
14. Sergei Zakharov. Russian Federation: From the first to second demographic transition// Demographic research. 2008. Volume 19.P. 907-972. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.24
15. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Evgeny M. Andreev, Martin McKee, David A. Leon. Components and possible determinants of the decrease in Russian mortality in 2004-2010// Demographic research. 2013. Volume 28. P. 917-950. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.32
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APA
Galin, R. A., Prudnikov, V. P., Utyasheva, I. B., & Shamsutdinova, N. K. (2016). Possible Demographic Prospects of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the Period up to 2030. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 12(3), 206-213. Retrieved from https://www.jour.fnisc.ru/index.php/vcugjournal/article/view/8332
Section
SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS
