Application of ARIMA-Models for Short-term Forecasting Fertility in the City of Ufa
Research Article
How to Cite
Bakhitova R.K., Lackman I.A., Shamsutdinova N.K. Application of ARIMA-Models for Short-term Forecasting Fertility in the City of Ufa. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2016. Vol. 12. No. 3. P. 214-219. (in Russ.).
Abstract
The Purpose of the Study is creating the ARIMA models of relative indicators of the birth rate for Ufa – age coefficients of the birth rate and total coefficient of the birth rate for the period up to 2021.
The Object of the Study is the dynamics of relative indicators of the birth rate in Ufa. The results of modeling indicate the continuation of a tendency of "growing" of motherhood in Ufa. When preserving a tendency of the growth of level in the birth rate for 25-44 the total coefficient will grow in age groups. According to the model with calculation of confidential intervals, the total coefficient can decrease. The received results of the forecast of age coefficients of the birth rate can be used for the creation of scenarios of the birth rate and the further calculation of number and the age and sex structure of the population of Ufa by a classical cohort-component method.
Keywords:
the birth rate, a forecast, time series, an ARIMA model
References
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3. Zaharov S.V., Frejka T. Jevoljucija rozhdaemosti v Rossii za polveka: optika uslovnyh i real'nyh pokolenij// Demograficheskoe obozrenie. – 2014. – №1. T. 1. – S. 106-143.
4. Magnus YA.R., Katyshev P.K., Pereseckij A.A. EHkonometrika. Nachal'nyj kurs.- M.: Delo, 2007. – 504 s.
5. Naselenie Rossii 2009. Semnadcatyj ezhegodnyj demograficheskij doklad / otv. red. A. G. Vishnevskij ; Nac. issled. un-t «Vysshaja shkola jekonomiki». – M. : Izd. dom Vysshej shkoly jekonomiki, 2011. – 334 s.
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8. De Beer J. Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods// Eur J Popul, 1990. – Mar. 5(4). – P. 315-46.
9. Dickey D. A. and Fuller W. A. Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root / Journal of the American Statistical Association. 74. 1979. - P. 427- 431.
10. McQuarrie A. D. R., Tsai C. L. Regression and time series model selection. – World Scientific, 1998. – 455 p.
11. Readings in Population Research Methodology/ Project editors: Bogue D.J., Arriaga E.E., Anderton D.L. Vol. 5.Population Models, Projections and Estimates. (Illinois): United Nations Fund for Population Activities, 1993.
12. Stenley K Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A Swanson. State and Local Population Projections;: Methodology and Analysis/ Kluwer Academic Publishers: New York, Boston, Dardrecht, London, Moscow. 2002. – 443 p.
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Bakhitova, R. K., Lackman, I. A., & Shamsutdinova, N. K. (2016). Application of ARIMA-Models for Short-term Forecasting Fertility in the City of Ufa. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 12(3), 214-219. Retrieved from https://www.jour.fnisc.ru/index.php/vcugjournal/article/view/8333
Section
SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS
