Reserves for Increasing the Fertility in Russia: to the Method of Assessment
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The publication was prepared with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research: project No. 20-510-00004.
How to Cite
Arkhangelskiy V.N., Fadeeva T.A. Reserves for Increasing the Fertility in Russia: to the Method of Assessment. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2022. Vol. 18. No. 2. P. 162-176. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2022.18.2.2 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article considers methodical issues of estimating fertility growth reserves. Based on statistical information for Russia, this estimate for the total fertility rate is related to the upcoming changes in the sex and age structure of the population. And in relation to the total fertility rate, the reserves of increase in the first and second births are associated with overcoming the negative consequences of "timing shifts." The estimation of fertility growth reserves is based on fertility rates for both calendar years and real generations. The results of sociological studies of reproductive behavior give significantly greater opportunities for assessing fertility growth reserves (this work uses data from the "Selective Observation of Reproductive Plans of the Population" conducted by Rosstat in 2012). Relatively more feasible reserves for increasing the average number of children born in real generations (and, therefore, increasing the birth rate) are the difference in the average expected and available number of children, the proportion intending to give birth in the coming years. The larger but more complex reserve for increasing the average number of children born is the difference between the desired and the available number of children. The difference between the average expected number of children with an average and a low assessment of living conditions and the value of this indicator with a high assessment, differences in the average self-assessment of the likelihood of having a child in the coming years, with and without additional assistance to families with children.
Keywords:
fertility, total fertility rate, real generations, average number of children born, reproductive intentions, fertility growth reserves
References
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23. Spéder Z., Kapitany В. How are time-dependent childbearing intentions realized? Realization, postponement, abandonment, bringing forward. European journal of population. 2009. №25. Р. 503–523. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-009-9189-7
2. Antonov A.I., Medkov V.M., Arhangel'skij V.N. Demograficheskie processy v Rossii XXI veka. [Demographic processes in Russia of the 21st century] M., Graal', 2002. 167 s. ISBN: 5-94688-025-H (In Russ.).
3. Apolihin O.I., Moskaleva N.G., Komarova V.A. Sovremennaja demograficheskaja situacija i problemy uluchshenija reproduktivnogo zdorov'ja naselenija Rossii [Contemporary demographic situation and problems of improving the reproductive health of Russian population]. Jeksperimental'naja i klinicheskaja urologija. 2015. №4. S.4-14 (In Russ.).
4. Belova V., Darskij L. Mnenija zhenshhin o formirovanii sem'i (po dannym special'nogo oprosa rabotnic neskol'kih moskovskih predprijatij) [Opinions of women on the formation of the family (according to a special survey of employees of several Moscow)]. Vestnik statistiki. 1968. №8. S.27-36 (In Russ.).
5. Biktimirov N.M., Gajfutdinova R.M., Ibragimova A.A., Il'darhanova Ch.I. Vnutriregional'naja differenciacija demograficheskogo potenciala Respubliki Tatarstan [Intraregional Differentiation of Demographic Potential in the Republic of Tatarstan] // Jekonomicheskie i social'nye peremeny: fakty, tendencii, prognoz, 2019. T. 12. №3. S. 189–202. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.3.63.12 (In Russ.).
6. Borisov V.A. Perspektivy rozhdaemosti. [Fertility prospects] M., Statistika, 1976. 248 s. (In Russ.).
7. Eliseeva I.I. Rozhdenija i nerozhdenija [Birth and Not Birth]. Peterburgskaja sociologija segodnja. Vyp.10. SPb., 2018. S.204216. DOI: 10.25990/socinstras.pss-10.g1cq-yc02 (In Russ.).
8. Zemljanova E.V. Poteri potencial'nyh rozhdenij v Rossii iz-za problem, svjazannyh so zdorov'em [Potential birth loss due to health-related problems in Russia]. Social'nye aspekty zdorov'ja naselenija. 2016. №2 (48) DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021-2016-48-2-4 (In Russ.).
9. Il'darhanova Ch.I., Ibragimova A.A. Kachestvo zhizni mnogodetnyh semej (kejs Respubliki Tatarstan) [Life quality of families with many children (case of the Republic of Tatarstan)] // Vestnik Nizhegorodskogo universiteta im. N.I. Lobachevskogo. Serija: Social'nye nauki, 2021. №1 (61). S.73-82. DOI: 10.52452/18115942_2021_1_73 (In Russ.).
10. Kalachikova O.N., Shabunova A.A. Vozmozhnosti i rezervy povyshenija rozhdaemosti v Rossii [Opportunities for and potential of the birth rate increase in Russia]. Problemy razvitija territorii. 2013. Vyp.6 (68). S.66-72 (In Russ.).
11. Karafa-Korbut N.O., Prihodchenko O.I., Parshuta V.S. Prognoznye ocenki rozhdaemosti v Belarusi na osnove demograficheskoj volny [Projected estimates of fertility in Belarus based on the demographic wave]. Ev-razijskij sojuz uchenyh. 2019. №9(66). S.3944. DOI: 10.31618/ESU.2413-9335.2019.3.66.312 (In Russ.).
12. Maleva T.M., Tyndik A.O. Potencial rosta rozhdaemosti v Rossii: uroki megapolisa [Fertility growth potential in Russia: lessons of the megalopolis]. Zhurnal Novoj jekonomicheskoj associacii. 2013. №1 (17). S.137–158 (In Russ.).
13. Medkov V.M. Uroven' zhizni i reproduktivnoe povedenie dvuhdetnoj gorodskoj sem'i. Social'no-demograficheskie issledovanija braka, sem'i, rozhdaemosti i reproduktivnyh ustanovok. [Living standards and reproductive behaviour of a two-day urban family] Erevan, 1983. S.138-139 (In Russ.).
14. Rybakovskij O.L., Tajunova O.A. Rozhdaemost' naselenija Rossii i demograficheskie volny [Fertility in Russia and demographic waves]. Narodonaselenie. 2017. №4. S.56-66. DOI: 10.26653/1561-7785-2017-4-4 (In Russ.).
15. Sinel'nikov A.B. Transformacija braka i rozhdaemost' v Rossii [Transformation of marriage and fertility in Russia]. Narodonaselenie. 2019. № 2. S.26–39 DOI: 10.24411/1561-7785-2019-00013 (In Russ.).
16. Sifman R.I. Rozhdaemost' i material'naja obespechennost' [Fertility and material security]. Rozhdaemost'. M., Statistika, 1976. S. 76-92 (In Russ.).
17. Tihomirov N.P., Tihomirova T.M. Ocenka i upravlenie potencialom vosproizvodstva naselenija Rossii [Assessing and managing the reproduction potential of Russia]. Federalizm. 2019. №3. S.51–71. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2019-3-51-71
18. 18. Tyndik A.O. Reproduktivnye ustanovki i ih realizacija v sovremennoj Rossii [Reproductive attitudes and their realization in modern Russia]. Zhurnal issledovanij social'noj politiki. 2012. T.10. №3. S. 361-376 (In Russ.).
19. Shabunova A.A., Kalachikova O.N. Demograficheskij potencial i stimulirovanie rozhdaemosti [Demographic capacity and fertility promotion]. Narodonaselenie. 2016. №4. S. 47-56 (In Russ.).
20. Beaujouan E., Berghammer C. The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Eu-rope and the United States: A Cohort Approach. Population Research and Policy Review. 2019. №38. P. 507–535. DOI: 10.1007/s11113-01909516-3
21. Liefbroer A.C. Changes in family size intentions across young adulthood: a life-course perspective. European journal of population. 2009. №25(4). Р. 363–386. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-008-9173-7
22. Philipov D. Fertility intentions and outcomes: The role of policies to close the gap. European journal of population. 2009. №25. Р. 355–361. DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-009-9202-1
23. Spéder Z., Kapitany В. How are time-dependent childbearing intentions realized? Realization, postponement, abandonment, bringing forward. European journal of population. 2009. №25. Р. 503–523. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-009-9189-7
Article
Received: 14.02.2022
Accepted: 15.06.2022
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APA
Arkhangelskiy, V. N., & Fadeeva, T. A. (2022). Reserves for Increasing the Fertility in Russia: to the Method of Assessment. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 18(2), 162-176. https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2022.18.2.2
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